We have reached that mid-January slump where the goals for the new year start to waiver, and reality slowly starts to creep in for the masses. Meanwhile, those who attempted to make bold political predictions are almost certainly reneging on comments made about how Canada can best steer its economic ship in the weeks and months ahead.
The events triggered last weekend with the capture of Nicolás Maduro and the American seizure of Venezuela’s oil reserves have effectively dismantled the global geopolitical playbook. While it is rare that such an event has immediate consequences for Canada, the U.S. has unilaterally disrupted the status quo and is now in sole pursuit of a diversification strategy that is leaving no margin of error for countries sitting on the sidelines.
In light of U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent moves to secure its energy supply, Canada has no choice but to urgently expand its trade relations with other countries and identify new markets for global markets for its resource products. While CUSMA negotiations have officially kicked off this year, decision makers will have to weigh the reality of navigating concessions at the bargaining table with how quickly other deals can come to fruition. This likely means entering partnerships with countries who have traditionally failed to operate under the same democratic principles of respect for the rule of law and human rights that have governed the western world since World War II.
This complex, global restructuring is happening against a domestic backdrop of a minority parliament. So far, the Liberals have been able to seize on a period of political instability of the Conservative Party, which has been dealing with lingering leadership questions after last spring’s election.
While the government continues to chase potential floor crossers from the opposition benches, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is about to put the election in the rearview window with the party faithful casting their vote at the end of the month to determine his fate. All signs point to him clearing this hurdle and moving the party back into a position of strength as they once again begin the work of preparing for the next election and putting the Liberals on the defensive.
This all but means the grace period that the Carney government spent much of last year enjoying is about to come to an end. Barring a political catastrophe on the convention floor, the Conservatives will return to parliament re-energized, and ready to call for action on the promises the prime minister has made. Priority number one? Action on the pipeline memorandum that is meant to flow through the northwest coast of British Columbia.
2025 brought the Carney government to the halls of power and marked the start of Trump’s second term in office, but the honeymoon period is officially over. Only two things are certain for the year ahead: the opposition will be relentless in their critiques, and the Canadian public will be watching to see if the Liberals can actually deliver action on the many promises they have made.
Josie Sabatino is a Senior Consultant at Summa Strategies, focused on providing strategic insight and helping clients meet their objectives in an ever changing and complex political and regulatory environment. Prior to joining Summa, Josie spent nearly a decade in political communications and most recently served as the Director of Communications to the Hon. Erin O’Toole, former Leader of the Official Opposition.
