The Liberals will look to dust off the old playbook in the event of a Trump win next week. Pictured: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Photo Credit: Justin Trudeau/X.
Nasty, brutish and short. The age-old words of political philosopher Thomas Hobbes come to mind when summing up the U.S. presidential campaign, which will come to a close on Tuesday.
To say it’s been a rollercoaster would be an understatement. Notable dramatic moments that will make the history books include the withdrawal of President Joe Biden from the race after a disastrous debate performance, two assassination attempts against former President Donald Trump, the coronation of Vice-President Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential candidate, a former Chief of Staff to Trump calling him a fascist, and a whack of celebrities jumping into the race to formally endorse the candidate of their choosing.
While results could still be rolling in this time next week, Americans will likely have some clarity on who will be inaugurated as the next president.
For Canadians, this matters for a couple of reasons. There’s been no shortage of headlines on the topic, but put simply, there will be no easy answers regardless of the electoral outcome.
Both candidates pose some risk for Canada. On the one hand, Harris is seen as the more palatable option. While she is expected to stick with some of the protectionist policies seen under the mandate of Biden, a period of relative stability is expected to define the relationship between Canada and the U.S. over the course of the next four years.
Trump, on the other hand, has issued a number of threats, including on trade and immigration. A consistent theme during his last presidential term was implementing ‘Buy America’ policies, including the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum. Those same tariffs are anticipated to make an appearance again, with Trump hinting at a global tariff on all US imports.
During a phone interview with Fox News during the summer, Trump noted on immigration that, “[there’s] an invasion of our country taking place at our border, our southern border, it’s a total invasion. And now it’s starting at our northern border also, through Canada.”
Comments like these may seem flippant, but Trump has shown an affinity to doubling down in the heat of the moment. As immigration continues to be a hot button issue, it’s safe to assume that the conversation will remain inflamed, particularly as a renegotiation of CUSMA is set to kick off in 2026.
Under normal circumstances, it could be expected that the federal government would be exercising an extreme amount of caution when it comes to the next president given the table stakes. But these are not normal circumstances.
If Trump wins next week, Canadians are going to have to trust that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will put diplomatic relations above his re-election campaign. Time and again, the Liberals have made desperate attempts to compare Conservatives to the antics of Trump and the Republican Party. This has served as a tried-and-true tactic, and one that was deployed in the 2019 election with some success.
Down in the polls and facing an increasingly tenuous path to victory in the next election, it is all but a guarantee that the Liberals will look to dust off the old playbook in the event of a Trump win next week. For Canadians that are hoping for a peaceful transition of power to occur in the U.S., the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Josie Sabatino is a Senior Consultant at Summa Strategies, focused on providing strategic insight and helping clients meet their objectives in an ever changing and complex political and regulatory environment. Prior to joining Summa, Josie spent nearly a decade in political communications and most recently served as the Director of Communications to the Hon. Erin O’Toole, former Leader of the Official Opposition.
