This author is predicting a Trump win, a Democratic House and a Republican Senate. Photo Credit: iStock.
Attempting to understand and project what happens next in Campaign 2024 sounds like a fool’s errand. Once again, this author will play the fool and try to read the American electorate before the returns are in.
The presidential race will come down to the battleground states, where former president Donald Trump appears to have a small advantage. Polls are hard to depend on because they underestimated Trump’s vote in 2016 and 2020 but missed the underperforming GOP vote in 2022. Using the best sources this author has followed and researched, including Real Clear Politics, 538, Two Way (Mark Halperin), Atlas Intel, and a variety of media personalities this author has come to trust, I think Trump will be elected the 47th President of the United States on Tuesday, possibly Wednesday morning. There are three reasons why.
First, Trump will claim back Georgia (16 electoral votes) and Arizona (11 electoral votes), raising his electoral numbers to about 259, just eleven short of victory. The Harris campaign has effectively resigned themselves to defeat in Arizona. As for Georgia, Harris still hopes that the 30 per cent of black voters who make up the franchise in the Peach State will help her get over the top. Having not delivered for Trump in 2020, Georgia governor Brian Kemp has gone all in for Trump this time. Using his campaign team from 2018 and 2022, Kemp strongly believes he knows where the votes are in the Republican counties and will get them out. Looking at early voting numbers, he appears to be on target.
Second, early voting in Nevada has been surprisingly Red-tinted. As in Arizona, Americans have had a front-row seat to the impact of mass illegal immigration under the Biden-Harris team in the Sliver state. They don’t like what they have witnessed and have been energized to vote against those they think have overseen the disastrous policy. Nevada only has six electoral votes. That puts Trump at 265, still four short of the needed 270. With the loss of the 33 electoral votes in these three states, Vice President Kamala Harris has been whittled down to 273 electoral votes. She can still win, but now she must hold on to the Rust Belt.
Finally, there’s the Rust Belt. The Rust Belt includes Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Many believe the race comes down to Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes. Sources coming out of the Badger state spell big trouble for Harris and her hopes to become the first woman president. Both Republican and Democratic campaign operatives are telling people that they will be both shocked and surprised if Harris wins Wisconsin. If Wisconsin goes to Trump, which many observers think will happen, Trump could claim the presidency without winning Pennsylvania. The fact that Harris finds herself in a dogfight for these three states will likely mean she loses. Trump could easily overtake her in Michigan and Pennsylvania as well. Provided he holds the Sun Belt and brings in one of the three blue wall states he will be elected on Tuesday. This author believes he will win two of the three moving his electoral total into the 290s. At the end of the evening, I think he has 294 electoral votes to Harris’s 244.
Americans will also vote for Congressional seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate. The House races are very tight in the ones coming down to the wire. About 22 races remain toss-ups. Presently, the GOP seems to have about 208 in place and the Dems about 205. With one party needing 218, the battle is nip and tuck. The 22 contested seats are in various parts of the nation, including New York. Getting out the vote will be very important and if the close races end up in Blue areas, Democrats can move them into their column with a superior effort to round up votes. The Democrats will take over the House in 2025 with a thin margin of 220 seats, a bare majority. It will be their turn to manage an unruly band of progressives and leftists, select a Speaker and try to herd their less-than-cooperative members into the fold. I expect Hakeem Jeffries to win the election as Speaker of the House, but keeping his mavericks in line will become a full-time headache for the new Speaker. One thing that will unite them is Trump.
The Senate projects a different story. The favourable map for Republicans will fall strongly their way on election night. Sitting at 49 going in, I expect the GOP to hold 54 or 55 senate seats once the votes are tallied. Beginning with wins in solidly Red West Virginia and Montana, the GOP will also piece together victories in Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan. That will raise them to 54. The 55th seat will come from one of three possibilities: Pennsylvania, Nevada, or Arizona. A careful examination of these states will reveal how they are drifting Red in this election. Democrats will pay for having gone too far out of the mainstream on issues like immigration, boys playing in girls’ sports, and siding too often with Palestinian protestors. The Trump vote will drag a few of these strong candidates across the line. Republicans chose better nominees than in 2022, Donald Trump’s name is on the ballot, and the Biden-Harris administration is unpopular. It will not be a Red wave on all fronts, but this author expects a strong Red current to sweep in a Republican administration and a strongly held GOP senate.
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who worked part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar until being appointed Executive Director at Redeemer Bible Church in October 2023. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, earning a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
