It’s only a matter of time before Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation comes. Pictured: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Photo Credit: Justin Trudeau/X.
It’s a new year, and the countdown to the next federal election has officially begun. One of the only political certainties that Canadians can take to the bank at this juncture is that all political parties are about to kick into high gear in an attempt to convert their supporters into actual voters come election day.
A blank slate offers the opportunity to provide unfettered political predictions. After the chaos created by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s attempt to oust his finance minister, and the subsequent calls for his resignation by the Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Liberal caucuses that happened over the Christmas break, it’s only a matter of time until the resignation comes.
Before parliament rose for the winter break, Trudeau announced that he would be weighing his options over the holidays. He and his team likely thought that time away from the Ottawa bubble would give them enough runway to escape the calls coming from inside the house. Instead, it had the opposite effect.
Caucus members have instead had the chance to organize, free from the time constricting restraints of parliamentary duties. With the majority of caucus now calling on Trudeau to resign, the next logical question is how the next leader will be installed.
The options are limited. According to the Liberal Party rules, the national board can choose a successor in consultation with caucus, in the event the leader resigns. While this option would guarantee a swift transition of power during a period where every day counts, it threatens to rankle political staff and party supporters who will be key volunteers when the writ drops.
Alternatively, Trudeau could prorogue parliament before resigning, allowing the Liberals to run a leadership contest on a shortened timeline. While the Liberals currently offer free party membership status to anyone who signs up, it would at least allow the winner of the leadership race to claim they were duly chosen by the grassroots.
Whether the Liberal Party chooses to appoint its next leader, or run a leadership race, it should be noted that there is no silver bullet to solving the party’s brand challenges in advance of the next election.
Current cabinet ministers who have leadership ambitions should look critically at the situation before them, including the dismal polling numbers, before throwing their hat in the ring to replace Trudeau. If that isn’t enough to dissuade them, they need only look at the historical records of both the Liberal Party and Conservative Party to see just how long it takes a political party to rebuild after nearly a decade in power.
This author’s prediction for 2025? Trudeau’s time in power is officially coming to a close. Regardless of who takes up the mantle, and when, the Liberal Party will be sentenced to irrelevancy come the next election. A change election will bring forward a whole host of new power brokers, and the Liberal Party will belatedly begin the very long process of rebuilding.
Josie Sabatino is a Senior Consultant at Summa Strategies, focused on providing strategic insight and helping clients meet their objectives in an ever changing and complex political and regulatory environment. Prior to joining Summa, Josie spent nearly a decade in political communications and most recently served as the Director of Communications to the Hon. Erin O’Toole, former Leader of the Official Opposition.
