Opinion

Breaking down a Trump win

Trump will be bad for America. Not in the same way as Harris, but bad nonetheless.

After the recent debate, the chances of former president Donald Trump reclaiming the presidency slipped considerably in the eyes of many liberals, progressives, Democrats, and Never-Trumpers. There are reasons to doubt that analysis and evidence suggest that a Trump victory remains possible, if not likely. Regardless, a Trump restoration will affect groups at every layer of society. Space and time will not allow me to plumb the depths of this discussion fully, but let me break down four Trump spheres that will be impacted and forecast how these groups will fare under a second Trump Administration. 

CHRISTIANS

Evangelicals and Catholic voters will give Trump a big bump toward victory, but will his administration be as good for them as they think? I have my doubts. Trump proudly declared his appointments to the Supreme Court in his first term which led to the overturning of Roe v Wade. His heart no longer seems in it. I don’t think he will lead any efforts to oppose Christian teaching or freedom. Still, the comfort, protection, and boldness that many Christian leaders practice, because they think Trump has their back, seems out of proportion with the man and his habits. Think of his waffling on abortion as a leading indicator. 

Christianity has never thrived in power as much as it has when in opposition.  By default, Christianity is an underdog religion that requires an outsized effort to show grace, humility, and love in the face of persecution, ridicule, and indifference. Christians do not galvanize when they have an easy road. There will remain opportunities for the religious right to reach out to the hurting, the wounded, and the unwell, but getting caught up in establishing Christianity as the religion of the state or the preeminent faith of society will be an imposter that hurts the cause and exposes Trump as a charlatan of orthodox Christianity. 

CONSERVATIVES

The threat to Christianity Trump poses pales in comparison to the troubles he will bring to the conservative movement. Most conservatives have struggled to be enthusiastic Trump supporters. Some have held their noses and voted for him. Others, finding the Harris-Walz ticket too preposterous to support have been willing to align with Trump, mostly because he can only serve one more term. But committed conservatives know that Trump does not stand for limited government. He has no interest in a humble executive and he has no plan to bring the budget deficits under control. Trump’s transactional nature will lead him to say anything to anyone given the right props. His fluid ideology leads him to policies and statements that make little sense and have nothing to do with conservatism. Worse, the Vance pick means that if he wins, J.D. Vance will be the heavy favourite to win the Republican nomination in 2028. Vance may be bright, family-friendly, and possess youthful energy but his public pronouncements suggest he would like to implement economic policies that will handcuff enterprise. His preference for American isolation on the world stage could force America into conflicts that could have been managed if the United States remained engaged. A Trump victory will stain conservatives for decades to come. He has already woefully articulated that case in front of millions of voters. Doing so for four years will harden Americans’ impression that conservatives abandoned their principles to ensure they influenced the White House. 

REPUBLICANS

Anyone believing that conservatives and Republicans are one and the same should quickly be disabused. Conservatives have principles that should guide their voting instincts. Republicans will sell their souls to achieve power (as would Democrats). A Trump victory under the Republican banner may sound great, but I suspect it will be short-lived. I think the press and Democrats will combine to undermine any Trump momentum very quickly. Trump, older and no wiser, will wander off about grievances, post ill-advisedly to Truth Social and erratically govern. He will make thoughtless appointments, firing people who do not compliment him and lashing out at those who disagree publicly. Rather than staying disciplined and on point, Trump will struggle to advance a coherent conservative policy on the economy, social issues, or foreign policy. His immigration plan could prove to be useful if he reduces illegal entries and focuses on the problem as one that tears at the social fabric. Open borders (and they are open under Biden-Harris for all intents and purposes) overwhelms schools and hospitals, and destroys small-town budgetary decisions and infrastructure. The large influx in such a short period has proven to be unmanageable and a burden too great for most communities. I believe Trump could accomplish something lasting and valuable on this issue alone. 

THE NATION

I rarely agree with Pope Francis. I find him Marxist in outlook and economically illiterate. Perhaps that is why he is a theologian. I do agree with him about the choice before Americans. Choosing the lesser of two evils sounds right to me. The United States will not be better off four years from now if Vice President Kamala Harris wins because her policies are terrible. I do not have the time to explain why she would drive America into recession, dampen entrepreneurial interest, handcuff development, pursue hopeless environmental policies, and enforce unsustainable social and family formation legislation. I am confident she would. As for Trump, millions believe he possesses the secret sauce to Make America Great Again. I am afraid that he has lost his fastball. His age works against him, his ideas are tired. He cannot avoid the temptation to talk about himself, his policies, and his ideas instead of the nation. He will divide America against itself. I know that many of his followers and fans sincerely believe he will bring change, he will restore America, and he will be their vengeance or retribution. Hogwash!  The outcome has been determined. Trump will be bad for America as well. Not in the same way as Harris, but bad nonetheless. The country will be fuming about his thoughtless musings. There will be those who will find his words hurtful and outrageous. In a time when we need grace, the leader will be vulgar; when the citizenry requires healing, the leader will be injurious; when the world demands guidance, the leader will be self-absorbed. I take no comfort in this assessment; I simply believe it to be true. The lesser of two evils? How about the evil of two lessers?  

 

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