Mark Carney’s Liberal Party won a small plurality of seats in Monday’s election. Shortly after midnight on election night, the Liberals were hovering around 160 seats, while the Conservatives were sitting at 150 seats. The Bloc Québécois, NDP and Green Party were projected to earn around 23, 8 and 1 seat(s), respectively.
At the start of election day, polling aggregator 338Canada, which utilizes data from major Canadian pollsters such as Nanos, Mainstreet, Ipsos, and Léger, projected that Niagara West Conservative MP Dean Allison and St. Catharines Liberal MP Chris Bittle would easily win re-election.
The aggregator also showed a neck-and-neck race between the Conservatives and Liberals in Niagara Falls-Niagara-on-the-Lake, where Conservative MP Tony Baldinelli was the incumbent, as well as in the Niagara South riding, which is represented by Liberal MP Vance Badawey.
Some uncertainty in the latter two ridings was created by a realignment, due to population density, in which the Town of Fort Erie was removed from the Niagara Falls-Niagara-on-the-Lake riding, to become a part of the New Niagara South Riding (previously Niagara Centre).
On election night, Allison, Baldinelli and Bittle were all returned to the House of Commons by large margins. In a major local development, however, Fred Davies was triumphant in the New Niagara South Riding, defeating Badawey.
As of midnight on election night, Davies had earned more than 50 per cent of the popular vote in the riding.
The close margins in seats, both between the Conservatives and Liberals, as well as the generally poor performance of the other parties, create an uncertain environment in which the 45th Canadian Parliament will have to function.
It also remains unclear how Carney, who had asked Canadians for a majority government before commencing trade and security negotiations with U.S. President Donald Trump, will approach deal-making with opposition parties to keep his new minority government afloat for as long as possible.
In the weeks ahead, Carney will also have to create his post-election cabinet. Locally, Bittle, who has served as St. Catharines MP since 2015 and is now the only Liberal MP in the Niagara Region, could be considered for a cabinet role.
In general, this election may have created more questions than it answered. One conclusion that can be drawn, however, is that local issues, particularly cross-border trade, border security and Canada-U.S. relations, will receive a great deal of national attention in the months and years to come.
Nick Redekop completed his Honours Bachelor of Arts Degree in Labour Studies at Brock University. He has previously served in municipal and federal politics. In his free time, Nick enjoys following sports, taking part in outdoor activities, and reading biographies. Nick resides in Niagara Falls
