At last year’s NATO Summit, Canada showed up with little more to offer than platitudes. The former Prime Minister attempted to save face with world leaders by announcing an eleventh-hour pledge to meet its two per cent target by 2032, but it did little to appease an alliance that has steadily ramped up investment in response to the very real geopolitical threats knocking at the door.
The announcement came too late, and with too little ambition. The government failed to recognize that aspirational language was no longer the status quo, nor an acceptable public posture. Even with a target date now in place, Canada remained firmly at the back of the pack and came off as a laggard in an alliance where credibility increasingly hinges on meaningful commitments.
Fast forward to this week, when Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that Canada will invest five per cent of GDP annually by 2035. This figure includes both infrastructure and core military capabilities and is a bold, and attention-grabbing target. But it also comes just two weeks after the timeline for reaching the two per cent NATO benchmark was moved forward.
Canadians could be forgiven for feeling whiplash. Since May of last year, the government has rewritten its defence policy update, revised spending targets three times, indicated its intention to launch yet another review of the same policy, and promised to overhaul its outdated procurement system. Now, it claims it will undertake the most significant increase in military spending since the Second World War, and all within a decade.
There is no question that Canada must step up. The former government’s unwillingness to act decisively left the country open to criticism from allies, and vulnerable to rising global threats. The Carney government is clearly trying to change course through ambitious spending commitments and exploring new strategic partnerships with European allies. But ambition alone is no substitute for a concrete plan.
Details on how the prime minister will meet his goals to strengthen Canada’s position on the world stage remain scarce. A spring budget would have been the right moment to introduce the new defence spending framework, but the government instead chose to focus on domestic initiatives like the middle-class tax cut and other high profile legislative items more likely to resonate at doorsteps during the summer barbecue circuit.
When the budget is tabled this fall, Canadians can expect to see significant new defence spending, and they’ll rightly scrutinize it. These aren’t small line items, and public trust will depend on the government’s ability to show that this isn’t just more talk on projects that will be held up for many years to come.
At a minimum, the Carney government must pause the announcement cycle and begin shifting toward execution. It needs to establish a clear and credible path to fast-track spending this year and hit the two per cent NATO floor. Failing to follow through will not just validate criticism at home, it will further erode Canada’s standing with leaders who are already questioning our value in the alliance.
Josie Sabatino is a Senior Consultant at Summa Strategies, focused on providing strategic insight and helping clients meet their objectives in an ever changing and complex political and regulatory environment. Prior to joining Summa, Josie spent nearly a decade in political communications and most recently served as the Director of Communications to the Hon. Erin O’Toole, former Leader of the Official Opposition.
