The 2028 Democratic nomination race starts now. Pictured: California Governor Gavin Newsom. Photo Credit: Gavin Newsom/X.
With the 2024 election in hindsight, the only responsible thing for American political observers is to begin weighing in on 2028. After all, in just about two years politicians will begin to flood New Hampshire, Iowa and other early primary or caucus states looking for an early advantage to clinch delegates needed to win their party’s nomination. The Republican nomination will not be a coronation, but President-elect Donald Trump will greatly influence who succeeds him. The Democrats, on the other hand, will begin from the backseat and need to determine what vision to project and how to respond to whatever Trump’s second term brings. Determining the early contenders in the Democratic Party and who may hold the edge will interest this author over the next few paragraphs.
The Democratic Party has a strong bench of potential leaders elected from 2018 through 2022. According to oddschecker.com the most likely winner of the 2028 Democratic nomination will be California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Witmer, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, or Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. There are no senators listed, nor either Vice President Kamala Harris or Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. That points to the fact that most political analysts see little prospect of a senator breaking through as part of a minority team in the Senate and a felt need for the next nominee to be someone who has executive experience, lives outside Washington and represents a more grassroots outlook within the party. A quick perusal of these candidates and a few others may shed some light on the chances each one has.
Newsom
Newsom serves as the governor of the largest state in the union. His two terms overseeing California have been controversial, but he survived a recall vote and successfully pushed a very progressive agenda in the Golden State. He and J.B. Pritzker of Illinois have already decided to take on Trump as part of a new resistance. As reported by NBC News, “Just days after the election, Newsom announced he would convene a special session of the California state Legislature intended to ‘safeguard California values and fundamental rights in the face of an incoming Trump administration.’” Meanwhile, Pritzker has indicated that Trump’s efforts to deport those in the United States without legal standing will meet with opposition from his team, saying, “You come for my people, you come through me.” That after announcing with Jared Polis, the Governor of Colorado a new initiative called “Governors Safeguarding Democracy.” Newsom will represent those interests who see an America more like the one President Joe Biden attempted to create and will come out swinging soon after his term concludes at the end of 2026.
Whitmer
The governor of Michigan remains popular in her state, though Trump carried it in the recent election. Whitmer has shown little personal interest in running for the nomination, but she possesses the abilities, experience, and charisma to pull off a win. In the NBC report, a member of Whitmer’s cabinet, Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson said, “I’ve had a front-row seat to her leadership for these last six years. People love her, even if they disagree with her. She has that unique combination of grit and grace — a workhorse who genuinely cares about people and doesn’t back down from a fight. She has what it takes to unite people and lead our country.” If Democrats are to compete for an electoral vote victory they will need to win back states like Michigan.
Shapiro
Most political commentators expected Shapiro to be Harris’ running mate, but the vice president chose Walz instead. Winning Pennsylvania would not have made the difference, but Shapiro may have helped in other Rust Belt states and provided a more moderate image for the party. Shapiro remains popular in Pennsylvania and is expected to mount a strong campaign in 2028. Surprisingly his name ID needs burnishing. Only about three per cent of the Democrats in a survey said they would support his candidacy. Writing about the campaign’s closing days, Andrew Debenedetti of New York Magazine, observed, “The final campaign stretch is proving to be a practically sleepless one for Shapiro, who was scheduled to crisscross the state for in-person events and interviews for the remainder of the election. By the end of the week, he was slated for his 60th appearance for Harris since she became their party’s nominee three months ago, the vast majority of them in Pennsylvania, where he is unquestionably her top surrogate after falling just short of being selected as her running mate.” Shapiro’s party loyalty, popularity, and moderation will hold him in good stead.
Polis
The Governor of Colorado enjoys strong support within the party. Polis, the first openly gay man elected governor, started several companies and served in Congress before becoming governor. He has governed from the centre-left and avoided huge controversies in his state. Polis speaks plainly about his opposition to many of President-elect Trump’s policies but has indicated a willingness to work with the new Administration where possible. As a trailblazing leader in the LGBTQ community, he has broad support but will need to solidify it to run a national campaign.
Harris
The current vice president should be considered in 2028. If she chooses to run for governor of California, a rumour spreading hotly in the Golden State, she is likely out in 2028. But if she decides to run again, she will have a base ready to battle for her. Her admirers will say she was put in a bad position, had limited time, and ran a respectable campaign but had too many hurdles to overcome. If she were to run and win the nomination, she could be an attractive candidate to the progressives in the party and possess the recently gained experience of knowing how to run a national campaign. Many Democrats believe she deserves another shot and she currently leads the polls when people are surveyed about who they would support in 2028. Those polls tend to reflect name recognition, but Harris has a long flirtation with national office and Americans are not unwilling to give candidates a second look.
This list does not include several contenders in the Senate, including Raphael Warnock of Georgia, Mark Kelly of Arizona, or even the newly elected Ruben Gallego, also from Arizona, who pulled off a win in a red state that went for Trump by six points. At this point, governors better reflect what Democrats will need, but the days are early, though not as early as one might think.
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who worked part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar until being appointed Executive Director at Redeemer Bible Church in October 2023. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, earning a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
