Ontario Premier Doug Ford scored a big win with the Progressive Conservatives holding onto Hamilton East-Stoney Creek in last Thursday’s by-election.
This victory was by no means a sure thing. Before former minister and MPP Neil Lumsden won the riding for the PCs twice, in 2022 and 2025, the riding had been an NDP stronghold for a decade and a half.
Lumsden himself was a star candidate and his win in 2022 allowed Ford’s PCs to break through in Hamilton for the first time in several elections.
Replacing Lumsden, who announced his retirement earlier this summer, was no small task for the Tories. They managed to recruit, however, local councillor Jeff Beattie to run for the party against long-time former NDP MPP Monique Taylor, who represented a neighbouring riding before leaving Queen’s Park to run for the federal NDP in 2025.
Taylor herself was considered a star candidate for the NDP.
The Liberals nominated Heino Doessing, who placed second to Lumsden last year.
Lumsden’s first victory, back in 2022, was quite narrow. It was only in 2025 that the PCs really did well in the riding.
Back in 2022, Lumsden only won with 34.6 per cent of the vote, with the NDP and Liberal candidates both winning over 20 per cent of the vote and an independent candidate, incumbent Paul Miller (who had been removed from the NDP caucus) netting just under seven per cent.
Last year, Lumsden won more convincingly, garnering 42 per cent of the vote, more than 10 percentage points ahead of Doessing, his nearest challenger.
But with the PCs doing less well in the polls of late, and the Liberals seeming to strengthen, there was a real question as to whether Beattie could hold the riding for the Tories and, if so, how convincing his victory would be.
Nonetheless, Beattie proved the doubters wrong, winning 38.9 per cent of the popular vote, compared to Taylor’s 32.9 per cent and Doessing’s 23.4 per cent.
Not bad for a candidate running for the incumbent party in a by-election, particularly against a well-liked former MPP in Taylor.
Beattie himself was a first-term councillor, having been elected back in 2022, but he was popular locally and had a long history as a local trustee. Ford and the Tories put a lot into the campaign, with the premier attending and speaking at Beattie’s victory party.
The PCs didn’t do quite as well in Scarborough Southwest, a riding previously held by the NDP and which Marit Stiles’ party managed to retain. Ford’s party actually lost ground there, with the PC candidate winning just over 23 per cent of the vote, compared to over 30 per cent in 2025.
The story was similar in York Simcoe, held by the Tories for several election cycles and former minister Caroline Mulroney since 2018. Mulroney won 59 per cent of the vote back in 2025, while her successor, local councillor Susan Lahey, won just under 50 per cent.
Still, Ford’s Tories must be happy with the result. The Hamilton riding was always the riding to watch, and Beattie will be heading to Queen’s Park.
Ford’s government is in need of a Cabinet shuffle, with the premier losing a couple key ministers this summer, but the premier was clearly waiting until after this by-election to make changes. Watch for Beattie to possibly gain a Cabinet position is short order, given his experience and ability to win a key riding for the Tories, who hold just two ridings in urban Hamilton.
Thursday was a good night for the PCs and a good night for Ford, who has now been in power for over eight years. Anyone who says otherwise isn’t being a straight shooter.
Jay Goldberg is the Canadian Affairs Manager at the Consumer Choice Center. He previously served as the Ontario Director at the Canadian Taxpayers Federation and a policy fellow at the Munk School of Public Policy and Global Affairs. Jay holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Toronto.
