To gain a majority government, Prime Minister Mark Carney only needs one more Member of Parliament to defect to the Liberals. Unfortunately for him, his political gamesmanship is doing nothing to help the economy and is alienating his base. This could be the year the Liberals lose power.
Pierre Poilievre had to be more than a little concerned when Nova Scotia Conservative MP Chris d’Entremont crossed the floor to the Liberals in November, only to be followed by Michael Ma of Markham-Unionville last month. Fortunately for Poilievre, Ma’s defection was viewed as an opportunistic betrayal by Ma’s former voters. Tens of thousands signed a petition demanding his resignation, some going farther by demonstrating in front of his office.
The backlash has changed the equation for any who might want to follow in Ma’s footsteps. The alleged personal advancement of joining Team Carney looks more like political suicide now. His government, which once looked like it had a strong hand, is also showing signs of great vulnerability.
Carney’s attempt to reconcile economic progress with net zero goals was a lot easier when it was merely a nice-sounding concept. But as time goes on, the vision has to become reality, and every step carries a political cost. He already sacrificed the consumer carbon tax to win an election, but his approach to pipelines could cost him the next one.
In his memorandum of understanding with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, on a pipeline proposal Carney exempted the project from environmental initiatives including the Clean Electricity Regulations and a hard emissions cap. He also relaxed the requirements on reduced methane emissions and compromised the commitment to banning oil tankers off of BC’s northwest coast (which the U.S. does anyway).
This pivot from Trudeau-era policies made Green Party leader Elizabeth May pledge to vote against the Liberal government from now on. More importantly, it prompted Steven Guilbeault to step down from cabinet. In media interviews following his resignation, Guilbeault said not only could he not support the environmental compromises, but he was also not even informed they might be in jeopardy.
Carney’s policies and leadership style have left Guilbeault and other Trudeau-era heavyweights on the back benches or headed for the exit doors.
After years on the board of the World Economic Forum, Chrystia Freeland has finally taken a globalist role that she can no longer reconcile with being a Canadian MP. She is moving to the UK to oversee Rhodes Scholarships, starting July 1.
Former housing minister Nate Erskine-Smith is signalling strong interest in the Ontario Liberal leadership. Carney replaced Jonathan Wilkinson as Minister of Energy and Natural Resources with Tim Hodgson last spring. It’s hard to imagine Guilbeault or any of these former ministers running in the next federal election, and that doesn’t demonstrate internal confidence.
Yet, despite losing some internal support over the pipeline MOU, the document serves political purposes for Carney. It cools Alberta separatism a little, portrays federal openness to facilitating more Canadian oil and gas exports, and gets the Premier of Alberta to consent to higher industrial carbon taxes. Alas, it seems this the MOU itself was the goal for Carney and not seeing the project through.
Consider: on Nov. 25, a day prior to the official signing of the MOU, Carney emphasized that the agreement “creates necessary conditions, but not sufficient conditions, because we believe in cooperative federalism.” In other words, if B.C. and First Nations agree to it, then yes there will be a pipeline.
Sure! And if Cinderella got a dress in time her wicked stepmother would let her go to the ball! It’s not happening.
Taking the Disney metaphor a different way, we can just as easily ask when midnight will strike for this government. The political magic that makes rags into riches, a pumpkin into a chariot, and mice into horses cannot prevail forever.
Reality is hitting Canadians too hard to believe in Liberal fairy tales. Bills are still going up and the economy is still stagnating. The federal deficit is twice as bad as before. There is no trade deal with the U.S. and even the one Carney inherited, CUSMA, is in jeopardy.
Protectionism hasn’t hurt the U.S. because Trump has abandoned net zero targets and pursued conventional energy. The U.S. economy grew by an annualized rate of 4.3 per cent between July and September last year and. Canada’s economy grew by just 0.6 per cent. Why would Trump change anything? Canada has less leverage by the day.
Suddenly Carney’s political prospects look even worse than the national economy. The Conservatives are leading in the polls again. The NDP is in a leadership race; and once a winner is chosen, they’ll be eager to overturn the government and regain seats and party status in the House of Commons.
The federal Liberals aren’t the proverbial cat with 9 lives. It’s more like 13. And 2026 could well be the year their luck runs out.
