In the early stages of the 2025 campaign, Prime Minister Mark Carney has broken out into a dazzling lead. As of March 30, 2025, the website 338Canada.com has Carney garnering a majority government. The website places the chances of Carney winning the election at 99 per cent and his chances of securing a majority at 89 per cent. To say this indicates a reversal in fortunes would be supremely understating what has happened in the three months since Justin Trudeau announced his intentions to step down and make way for the former governor of the Bank of England. But most Liberals would take this in stride. Many would admit they were worried when Trudeau insisted he would try for a fourth mandate. However, they always believed Canadians would return to their senses and come home to vote Liberal once Canada’s natural governing party had decided upon its new leader. The assumptions of the Liberal Party about Canada and Canadians present a fascinating topic.
The first assumption in the Liberal playbook asserts that Liberals hold a position on the political spectrum that coincides with where most Canadians reside. Since the days of Laurier, the Liberal Party has attempted to reflect Canadians’ central defining ideas. When they have wandered from the centre, their electoral prospects have declined. More often, rather than admit their error, Liberals have pointed out blunders Canadians have made in not sufficiently aligning with the Liberal Party.
Liberals have never been shy about holding the morally superior position during any election campaign or in between. In World War I, Laurier felt the Liberals were right to oppose conscription. In World War II, King believed it right to employ conscription. Pierre Trudeau was dead certain about using the War Measures Act in Quebec. John Turner believed opposing the Free Trade agreement between Canada and the United States was the fight of his life, deserving the blood, sweat, and tears of every Liberal. Jean Chrétien knew Canada should not join the Americans in Iraq, and Justin Trudeau stood unmoved about his COVID policies, forcing truckers to take shots, and using the Emergency Powers Act to shut down their protest. Canadians can always count on Liberals to know what is right for them. If Canadians are in doubt, Liberals will do all they can to help them figure out why they need to think like Liberals, because the assumption should be that Liberals know where Canadians should be on the important issues of the day.
The second assumption in the Liberal playbook has already been mentioned. The Liberal Party believes they are the natural governing party of this nation. Since they have won the most elections, governed the country the longest, elected the most prime ministers, and held power most often, they must be the party Canadians look to when they vote. This imperial outlook explains why they will make deals to stay in power, usurp other parties to maintain control, and overstay their welcome despite polls indicating citizens’ discomfort about the nation’s governance. Liberals see their leadership of Canada as ongoing and something that will be quickly restored if interrupted. The short terms of Conservative Canadian prime ministers in the twentieth century could be chalked up to misjudgements on the part of Canadians. Surely, when presented with the facts, Canadians would understand that Conservatives will lead the country astray and only Liberals can discern what best expresses Canadian values or interests.
When Liberals lose national elections, they rarely spend much time doing any soul-searching or internal contemplation. They usually move on to the next leader, only confessing that they had the wrong messenger, not an insufficient message. While Conservatives will do forensics about an election loss, Liberals believe that a quick clean-up and a little blush will put the party back in shape to win the next time out. To most Liberals, the natural order is interrupted when their party does not rule in Ottawa, and only corrected when Liberal rule has been restored.
The third assumption the Liberal Party espouses defines how Canadians understand their nation. Liberals project the basic Canadian values of order, good government, and security. Whether or not they perform this role well, they assume Canadians embrace these ideals and will reward Liberals for believing in them better than Conservatives. Liberals assume Canadians will value security over liberty, order over freedom, and that they (Liberals) can deliver the promise of good government because, unlike Conservatives, they don’t get seduced by freedom or liberty.
Sure, Canadians sing about being free, but they don’t expect a full measure, just enough to allow them to go about their lives without daily interference. Given a choice between a job in the public sector with an income ceiling, benefits, a pension, seniority protection, and long-term security as opposed to one in the private sector with an unlimited income potential, a chance to be creative, set your hours but absent long-term security, Canadians would select the former. This patronizing interpretation of Canadian values has worked for Liberals for generations, but not all Canadians accept this and parts of Canada less so. Liberals do not accept Canada as a nation of varying interests and geographical advantages. They see Parliament as a fiefdom from which they can rule the country, setting forth decisions from Ottawa that have huge implications for people living thousands of kilometres away. Since assumption one exists (Liberals know what is best for Canadians), Canadians can trust Liberals to identify what is best for the nation and their interests.
Finally, Liberals assume the media will join their fight. If all else looks bleak, Liberals count on the CBC and the rest of the entrenched press to stand up for Liberals against the agitating Conservatives. They know that most journalists on the air and those in print media are sympathetic to their cause. At Issue, Question Period, and the network news programs will grant them favourable coverage and cheerlead when necessary. The recent kerfuffle over Carney’s unwillingness to debate in French slipped by with barely a comment. Only in Canada could a party that brought the nation official bilingualism be able to pass off a leader who spoke clerical French at best. Liberals knew that the media would be there to provide cover for Carney. The boondoggles he advised upon during the Trudeau years will continue because Carney, having acquired a PhD in economics, possesses the special knowledge needed to heal our ills and soothe the Trump beast. Canadian media have a long history of diminishing Liberal missteps. Carney’s will be carefully concealed. Constantly having to dismiss or diminish young Trudeau’s many peccadilloes, the press grew weary, but were more than happy to move on to the latest Liberal Knight, Mark Carney.
These assumptions and more have driven the lifeblood of the Liberal Party. Power is their breath, winning elections their purpose, and imprinting Liberal values across the land their destiny (at least in their minds). When Lester Pearson, the former Liberal leader and prime minister of Canada (1963-1968), led the fight for a Canadian flag in 1964-65, the idea of the two bars at the end of the flag was homage to Canada’s fate as a land “sea to sea.” The bars should have been blue for water, but Liberal colours are red and white. We have all grown to love our flag and stand proudly for it, but Liberal assumptions made it a political tool that Liberals turned to their advantage. Coincidence does not explain why our beloved Maple Leaf bears the same colours as the Liberal Party of Canada.
The 2025 election remains undecided, regardless of what polls may say a month out. Liberals may assume they have it in the bag. They may even suspect they deserve another term. Canadians will weigh in on this decision, and if Liberal Party assumptions prove wrong, it will not be the first time. I don’t expect it to dawn on Liberals that they fell short. Being Liberals, their assumptions will dictate that Canadians made a mistake for which they will repent in the next election. A Liberal in Canada interlocks with a former King of France. “Louis XIV was called the ‘Sun King’ because he saw himself as the central, vital source of power and light for France, mirroring the sun’s role in the world.” Like the Sun, Liberals rule our nation enduringly, powerfully, righteously, and benevolently according to unspoken Liberal orthodoxy. Dark days will lie ahead if Conservatives win. Liberal assumptions demand that you know they have selected the next prime minister. Canadians only need to assume the Liberal Party of Canada has chosen well for Canadians again.
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who worked part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar until being appointed Executive Director at Redeemer Bible Church in October 2023. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, earning a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
