If the 25-point swing in Toronto-St. Paul’s were to occur in Ontario in next year’s federal election, the Liberals would be left with no seats in the Niagara area or in Hamilton. Pictured: Liberal MPs Chris Bittle and Vance Badawey. Photo Credit: Vance Badawey/X.
In a stunning upset last week, Conservative candidate Don Stewart won a by-election in the Toronto riding of Toronto-St. Paul’s, a district the federal Liberals have held since the end of the Mulroney era in 1993.
The by-election was triggered by the resignation of long-time Liberal Member of Parliament Carolyn Bennett, who resigned in January to become Canada’s ambassador to Denmark.
In the last federal election, Bennett won the riding for the Liberals with 49 per cent of the vote, with the Conservative candidate coming in a distant second at 25 per cent.
Stewart’s win was a major swing toward the Tories, who picked up nearly 17 per cent to win 42 per cent of the popular vote. The Liberal candidate, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s former chief of staff, came in second with 40 per cent of the vote.
Much of the loss has been attributed to the unpopularity of the Trudeau government, its recent capital gains hike and its lack of support for Israel in the ongoing war in Gaza. But, as odd as it may sound, this by-election could have major implications for the Niagara area.
Abacus Data’s David Coletto notes that if all ridings in Ontario see the same kind of swing in next year’s election as was the case in the Toronto-St. Paul’s by-election, the Liberals would lose 55 of their present 77 Ontario seats.
Among the seats the Liberals would lose include St. Catharines, presently represented by Liberal MP Chris Bittle, and Niagara Centre, represented by Vance Badawey. The Niagara area’s other three major ridings, including Famborough-Glanbrook, Niagara Falls and Niagara West, are already held by Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives.
Looking a bit further into the neighbouring region of Hamilton, Coletto’s analysis shows the Liberals would also lose all three of their seats in Hamilton to the Conservatives: Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain and Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas. The NDP is expected to hold onto Hamilton Centre.
Focusing in on the riding of St. Catharines, Bittle has represented the city in the House of Commons since the Liberals took power in 2015. Bittle won the seat in 2015 by beating Conservative incumbent Rick Dykstra, who held the seat since 2006.
Bittle is currently the Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Housing, Infrastructure and Communities.
Bittle has been one of the Trudeau government’s foremost advocates of Bill C-11, the Online Streaming Act, despite criticism from many quarters that the legislation promotes government censorship. He has also been involved in a few different controversies on Parliament Hill, including a dispute with University of Ottawa Law Professor Michael Geist, with Bittle having made comments that he later apologized for.
The overall swing in the riding of Toronto-St. Paul’s from the Liberals to the Conservatives was 25 points. Given that Bittle won in 2011 with just a five-point margin, the riding of St. Catharines is likely one of the first that would change hands from the Liberals to the Conservatives.
Badawey is presently the Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Transport and has also held the riding of Niagara Centre since 2015, having taken the seat away from the NDP’s Malcolm Allen. Allen previously represented Niagara Centre from 2008 until his 2015 loss.
Badawey won Niagara Centre over the Conservative candidate by less than five percentage points in the 2021 election, suggesting that, like Bittle’s St. Catharines seat, Badawey’s Niagara Centre would be one of the first Ontario ridings to flip to the Tories.
Looking out further into the nearby area of Hamilton, more seats are likely to flip from Trudeau’s Liberals to Poilievre’s Conservatives.
The Liberals won Hamilton East-Stoney Creek by 13 points in 2021, beat the Conservatives by 10 points in Hamilton Mountain and edged the Tory candidate out by 15 points in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas. All three ridings easily fall within the 25-point swing margin referenced by Coletto.
If the 25-point swing were to occur in Ontario in next year’s federal election, the Liberals would be left with no seats in the Niagara area or in Hamilton and would find themselves with a much smaller caucus and on the opposition benches.
Jay Goldberg is the Ontario Director at the Canadian Taxpayers Federation. He previously served as a policy fellow at the Munk School of Public Policy and Global Affairs. Jay holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Toronto.
