A new Liberal leader will likely be chosen by late March. Pictured: Niagara Centre MP Vance Badawey. Photo Credit: Vance Badawey/X.
Liberal Members of Parliament from the Niagara area are now facing a choice about who to support, if anyone, in the upcoming party leadership race after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s announcement that he plans to resign as Liberal leader.
St. Catharines MP Chris Bittle and Niagara Centre MP Vance Badawey are the Liberal Party’s two federal representatives in the Niagara area. They were both part of an Ontario caucus that called on Trudeau to resign as Liberal leader after the resignation of former minister of finance and deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland in mid-December.
Neither Bittle nor Badawey was a sitting MP the last time the Liberal Party elected a leader, which was in 2013. Trudeau has led the party for nearly 12 years.
Both Bittle and Badawey were first elected in 2015.
It is still unclear as to whether Trudeau has the support of caucus to remain as prime minister while the Liberal Party picks a new leader. He indicated on Monday that he plans to stay until that occurs, but some voices within the Liberal Party want Trudeau to resign immediately and have someone else serve as interim prime minister until the party selects a new permanent leader.
The Liberal national caucus is set to meet tomorrow and that meeting will help determine whether Trudeau stays on. Trudeau has received Governor General Mary Simon’s permission to prorogue the House of Commons until March 24, meaning the leadership race will likely be short and MPs will be inclined to let Trudeau stay on given the short timeline.
The Liberal Party’s national executive team is now responsible for figuring out exactly how and when the Liberals will select a new leader. Membership in the Liberal Party is free, so any Canadian can sign up to become a card-carrying Liberal. However, it remains unclear when the party might set a deadline as to when Canadians have to be Liberal Party members in order to vote in the upcoming leadership race.
Given that all three opposition parties have indicated they no longer have confidence in the government and the Liberals only form a minority government in the House of Commons, the Liberal Party will likely want to have a condensed leadership race timeline to install a new prime minister relatively quickly, likely by the end of March when the House returns.
Although Canada’s next federal election is not scheduled until October, it is quite likely that the Liberals’ lack of support in the House could lead to an election much earlier. The Speech from the Throne presented by the government following prorogation is a confidence measure, meaning its defeat would trigger an election. And all three opposition party leaders have said they will vote against the government.
Bittle and Badawey will have a chance to decide if they want to support one of the candidates who throws their hat in the ring to succeed Trudeau or if they want to remain neutral.
MPs often endorse leadership candidates, but many choose not to. Given that this candidate will become the prime minister and not just party leader, more MPs might make the decision to weigh in than is typically the case.
Jay Goldberg is the Ontario Director at the Canadian Taxpayers Federation. He previously served as a policy fellow at the Munk School of Public Policy and Global Affairs. Jay holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Toronto.
