On Friday, March 14, Governor General Mary Simon will preside over the swearing-in of Mark Carney as Canada’s 24th Prime Minister.
Carney will succeed Prime Minister Justin Trudeau after winning the March 9 Liberal leadership election with an overwhelming 85.9 per cent of the vote.
The Carney government will take power nearly three-and-a-half years after the most recent federal election in which the Liberals won the most seats (160) but fell ten seats short of a majority.
The Trudeau government began experiencing a steady decline in popular support in 2022 after entering a supply-and-confidence agreement with the NDP. 2022 was also the year in which Pierre Poilievre became leader of the Conservatives.
Despite dramatically low approval ratings, disastrous results in multiple by-elections, and increasing divisions within his party, it was not until Jan. 6, 2025, that Trudeau announced his plan to resign. By this point, however, the Liberal Party was uncompetitive in most opinion polls.
This trend appears to have reversed course in recent weeks due to the arrival of Carney, as well as a general rallying around incumbents, in the face of U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war, and his expressed desire for Canada to become the 51st state.
The uniqueness of this moment has created much speculation that Carney, who currently does not hold a seat in the House of Commons, will ask Simon to dissolve Parliament in the first days after he becomes prime minister, and try to obtain a new mandate from the Canadian people.
The Niagara Region is home to four electoral districts which are currently split evenly between the Liberals and Conservatives.
In St. Catharines, incumbent Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) MP Chris Bittle is seeking another term. Bittle will be challenged by Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) candidate Bas Sluijmers, New Democratic Party (NDP) nominee Karen Orlandi and People’s Party of Canada (PPC) candidate Dennis Wilson. The Green Party of Canada (GPC) has not yet announced a candidate for this riding.
Until recently, polling aggregator 338Canada, a respected aggregator which utilizes data provided by a wide range of renowned polling companies including but not limited to Nanos, Mainstreet, Ipsos, and Léger, heavily favoured the CPC to pick up this seat at the expense of the struggling LPC. As of March 9, however, The LPC and CPC were tied at 39 percent, while the NDP, PPC and GPC were far behind with 15 per cent, four per cent, and three per cent, respectively.
In Niagara South (previously Niagara Centre), LPC MP Vance Badawey is projected to face an uphill battle as he faces off against CPC candidate Fred Davies. Davies, a regional councillor from Port Colborne, is currently predicted to garner 44 per cent of the vote, while Badawey would receive 32 per cent.
The NDP, which has nominated Chantal Mcollum, would obtain 16 per cent. The PPC, with nominee Peter Taras, currently occupies five per cent of the vote, while the GPC, which has also not nominated a candidate for the riding, would receive four per cent.
In Niagara West, CPC incumbent Dean Allison is currently predicted to win a landslide victory with 51 per cent of the popular vote.
The LPC, NDP, and GPC are yet to announce candidates in the riding but would receive 28 per cent, 11 per cent and five per cent, respectively. The PPC, which has nominated Ryan Anderson, is projected to obtain four per cent.
Niagara Falls – Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC MP Tony Baldinelli currently holds a 15-point lead over the second-place Liberals, with 47 per cent backing.
The LPC and NDP have not announced candidates for the riding as of yet. The parties are projected to secure 32 per cent and 13 per cent support.
The PPC, which will be represented in the riding by Dinah Althorpe, is predicted to obtain four per cent support. The GPC, which has nominated Karen Fraser in the riding, would also receive four percent of the vote based on current 338Canada modelling.
The House of Commons has been prorogued since Jan. 6 while the Liberals held their leadership election.
Although Parliament is scheduled to return on March 24, it is widely expected that Carney will ask Simon to drop the writ before this date.
Nick Redekop completed his Honours Bachelor of Arts Degree in Labour Studies at Brock University. He has previously served in municipal and federal politics. In his free time, Nick enjoys following sports, taking part in outdoor activities, and reading biographies. Nick resides in Niagara Falls
