Don’t expect Carney to appear at Rideau Hall anytime soon. Pictured: Former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney. Photo Credit: Mark Carney/X.
The proverbial elephant in the room. They linger. They distract. They have the power to leave everyone searching for the answer as to what comes next.
At present, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau finds himself staring his elephant directly in the face.
Any guesses as to who or what that elephant could be?
Spoiler alert: he’s the guy who’s neither elected nor shown any real motivation to throw his hat in the ring under the team Trudeau banner.
Mark Carney’s summer has been off to a great start. Whilst recently enjoying tennis matches from the Royal Box at Wimbledon, his name frequently comes up for a host of roles, including future leader of the Liberal Party, Minister of Finance, and star candidate in the next general election.
When it comes to the title, the consensus at this moment is ask and you shall receive.
But it’s not just pundits spinning about Carney’s potential. Trudeau himself, according to the Globe and Mail, held talks with the man of the hour as recently as Sunday to court him to join the ranks. From the outside looking in, this may seem like a strange strategy for a leader on a lifeline.
Trudeau’s calculation at this stage is simple. Keep your friends close and your enemies closer. He understands that his hand is stronger if he can lure Carney into the inner circle.
Part of the strategy is reliant on the fact that Trudeau has few moves left on the chess board to play. His caucus is increasingly disenchanted with the direction of the government and the polls consistently have the Liberal Party headed toward a crushing defeat.
Securing the supply-and-confidence agreement with the NDP was supposed to give Trudeau enough time to right the ship and shoot for the stars to secure a majority government come 2025. Instead, it has put Trudeau and his inner circle in constant damage control mode and created a vacuum that critics have been using to hone in on the government’s shortcomings.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has seized the opportunity to make any and all communications a litmus test on Trudeau’s leadership, which is paying dividends in terms of voter intent payoff.
Trudeau is now left with a couple of decision points. Make cosmetic changes in the form of a senior staff shakeup. Swap out cabinet ministers for those who are creating noise within the caucus. Or, and this could happen simultaneously, neutralize those who are viewed as a prospect to take the helm of the party.
So far, Carney has played his cards masterfully. Remaining on the sidelines has meant his fortunes are not tied to the sinking prospects of a Liberal Party that has been defined by the policies of Trudeau for the last ten years.
In the event of a leadership race, Carney will likely be one name among many former members of Trudeau’s cabinet. Again, he will not have to wear unpopular policies like the federal carbon tax or have ethics and appointment scandals hanging over his head when he goes to ask for support.
There has never been a better time to be on the sidelines. As we head into the midpoint of summer, rumours of a cabinet shuffle continue to grow. Don’t expect Carney to appear at Rideau Hall anytime soon.
Josie Sabatino is a Senior Consultant at Summa Strategies, focused on providing strategic insight and helping clients meet their objectives in an ever changing and complex political and regulatory environment. Prior to joining Summa, Josie spent nearly a decade in political communications and most recently served as the Director of Communications to the Hon. Erin O’Toole, former Leader of the Official Opposition.
