After a lackluster rollout of the second tranche of major projects earlier this month, Prime Minister Mark Carney saved the best for last and is sinking his teeth into the holy grail of controversy: a pipeline that will run directly to B.C. ‘s northwest coast.
Over the last two decades, there has been a laundry list of pipeline projects that have failed for one reason or another. The former Harper government drew criticism for sidelining environmental concerns, while Trudeau introduced a sweeping climate agenda that drew the ire of the resource sector. Even as the government has changed hands, it has proven to be of little influence on the final verdict.
Even when you put politics aside, red tape, an unfavourable investment environment, and the duty to consult are among the many reasons why oil and gas projects have been reduced to little more than a pipe dream in this country.
But low and behold, there is a new mastermind in town, and suddenly, nothing else matters. Carney has even been so bold as to sign his name to the future of the deal. While the Liberals are billing this as a “framework on shared ambitions” between Ottawa and the Province of Alberta, there is little doubt that the success of the deal, or the failure, will be a legacy point that is hard to escape.
As part of the deal, the federal government has agreed to drop the oil and gas emissions cap in return for Alberta increasing its industrial carbon tax. Politically, it is yet another domino to fall on the Trudeau-era environmental legacy. What remains unclear is how exactly Carney will meet the 2030 emissions reduction target his government committed to in exchange for support on a confidence motion to get the budget passed.
Based on the uncertainty around the emissions cap, as well as the pause on the EV mandate, the Parliamentary Budget Officer was quick to point out this week that the federal government is on track to fall short of its 2030 targets. While there are trade-offs in the proposed framework that would see methane emissions reduced through the Pathways carbon capture project, the math still isn’t adding up to a win for a government whose caucus is still deeply entrenched in meeting the goals set during an era that looks markedly different than the current one.
Carney has spent much of the past nine months distinguishing himself from his predecessor, with perhaps no greater contrast than on the energy file. With this new framework on the table that may see Alberta finally succeed in advancing its pipeline agenda, Carney is one step closer to meeting his mandate commitment to accelerate nation-building projects.
For the time being, Alberta has been neutralized. Carney must now deal with the fallout of the framework within his own caucus, while determining whether he can satisfy those pushing for more decisive climate action with a message framed primarily in economic terms.
Josie Sabatino is a Senior Consultant at Summa Strategies, focused on providing strategic insight and helping clients meet their objectives in an ever changing and complex political and regulatory environment. Prior to joining Summa, Josie spent nearly a decade in political communications and most recently served as the Director of Communications to the Hon. Erin O’Toole, former Leader of the Official Opposition.
