The average family will spend nearly $17,000 on groceries in 2025. Photo Credit: Pexels.
Niagara Region residents can expect higher grocery bills in 2025.
The 2025 Canada Food Price Report, with contributions from researchers at Dalhousie University, the University of Guelph, the University of British Columbia, and the University of Saskatchewan, predicts that grocery costs will rise by $801.56 for the typical family this year compared to 2024.
The research team reportedly uses “historical data, machine learning, and predictive analytics” to project future food prices.
The report assumes that a family of four has a father and mother, each between the ages of 31 and 50, a son between the ages of 14 and 18 and a daughter between the ages of 9 and 13.
The report says that groceries for a family with that demographic makeup would have cost $16,032.07 in 2024 and will cost $16,833.67 in 2025.
In terms of a percentage increase, the report predicts food prices will rise somewhere between three and five per cent.
Meat is expected to increase the most in price, rising by four to six per cent.
Last year’s report predicted that prices would rise between 2.5 and 4.5 per cent, meaning this year’s expected price increase is steeper than last year’s.
The report was accurate in 2024: food prices rose at a rate of 2.8 per cent.
The report also notes that nearly nine million Canadians are living in “food-insecure households,” with food banks seeing record demand in recent years. The number of food bank visits in 2023 was 90 per cent greater than just four years prior.
Costs are hitting younger Canadians the hardest, with 40 per cent of young Canadians relying on credit or savings to pay for food.
One major wild card for food prices in 2025 is the threat of tariffs from the incoming Trump administration in the United States.
“With 60 per cent of Canada’s agri-food exports going to the United States, Canadian producers rely heavily on American markets for growth,” reads the report.
Dr. Sylvan Charlebois of Dalhousie University, who was the lead researcher for the Food Price Report, noted that “tariffs or restrictions on Canadian imports could strain cross-border trade and increase prices for Canadian consumers while undermining the economic stability of the agricultural sector.”
Extreme weather is also expected to be a key challenge in 2025. Droughts and accompanying crop failures can have a major impact on food prices.
Supply disruptions from labour disputes that shut down major railways might also have a significant impact on food prices in 2025.
Other factors that impact prices include global conflict, energy costs, inflation, changes in currency value, the international trade environment, government policies and regulations, consumer awareness, consumer debt, and household disposable income.
Jay Goldberg is the Ontario Director at the Canadian Taxpayers Federation. He previously served as a policy fellow at the Munk School of Public Policy and Global Affairs. Jay holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Toronto.
