No one knows what surprises lurk behind the October election door. Pictured: Vice President Kamala Harris. Photo Credit: Kamala Harris/X.
As the presidential campaign heads into October, few things could shake up the race. For several weeks the polls have been close and depending on what you believe, the presidency will be decided by seven states and several thousand voters. Guessing what happens remains a parlour game, but they have happened in the past. The competitiveness of this race could turn on one of these unplanned events. What could they be? I offer five possibilities though the possibilities are numerous.
Another Trump Assassination Attempt
If Donald Trump comes under fire again, there are two possible effects. The first one impacts his ability to conduct his rallies. The ongoing threat to his life and the advice from security to avoid these large crowds means Trump can only freely schedule the gatherings with clearance, added personnel, and inconveniencing the people attending. If he can’t hold his rallies with his usual enthusiasm and interaction their effectiveness becomes reduced. A second effect could energize those who do not usually vote but think Trump has become a target and the present administration lacks the determination to protect him. If a few thousand people conclude that Trump has become a victim of left-wing rhetoric, measuring who might decide to come out and support him becomes a guessing game.
A Second Presidential Debate
After ABC’s moderators decided to join Team Harris in the last debate, Trump has been reluctant to return to the stage. He has hinted he might accept one if the proper moderators were chosen and the rules fairly enforced. He has indicated a willingness to conduct a debate on FOX News, but he will not go on one of the legacy media sites. He recently balked at an interview on CBS’ Sixty Minutes. Trump has reason to be leery of sharing a stage with moderators who have attempted to fact-check, take sides, and enforce rules inconsistently. Jimmy Carter refused to attend the first debate with Ronald Reagan because John Anderson, running as an independent would be sharing the stage. By the time the Carter and Reagan teams could agree to a debate, there was only a week left before the election. Reagan’s knock-out question about being better off four years ago left Carter no time to recover. I highly doubt a second debate between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will occur.
A Foreign Policy Crisis
Bombs reigning down on Israel, Lebanon, and Iran should alert the State Department to the potential for a serious foreign policy crisis. Harris has never served in the military, nor has anyone close to her family. She must be prepared to respond to world events spiralling out of control. The world will look to America for leadership and security. Her avoidance of tough questions, playing on vibes, and cackling about Doritos as her favourite snack will not be enough if the war in the Middle East spreads or China decides to move on Taiwan. Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin recognize weakness and America looks weaker than ever under a doddering President Joe Biden and a novice player in foreign affairs like Harris. Biden’s presidency ended when he pulled out of Afghanistan leaving billions of dollars of military equipment for the Taliban. He looked weak and feckless. It has not gotten any better and now everywhere he turns a foreign policy problem erupts. Any new crisis or an already established one that worsens will be an ugly surprise for the Harris campaign or an opportunity to assert American power.
Biden Health Development
Biden is unwell. I don’t know how sick or how unwell, but as his 82nd birthday nears we know he has trouble staying focused, has difficulty recognizing former colleagues, and possesses limited capacity physically and mentally. Until those who work for his administration are free to tell the story about his poor health, we can only guess. The evidence suggests he probably should not have run in 2020 or 2024. As with some presidents, their wives have driven them to higher office because they sought it more than their husbands. I believe that was the case with Sarah Polk, wife of James Polk (1845-49), America’s eleventh president who only served one term, and Edith Wilson, who effectively became president when her husband Woodrow suffered a severe stroke in his second term. Mrs. Wilson even oversaw cabinet meetings. First Lady Jill Biden deserves great scrutiny for her role in pushing her husband to run even as she saw him experiencing health issues. The fact she would get behind him on a second term bends the mind. Any further erosion of Biden’s health, an obvious event, a public slip, or another episode on the stump where he wanders or looks lost could reinforce Harris’s perfidy about what she knew and why it has taken second place to her ambition.
Trump Trials
Democratic lawfare never achieved its end of stopping Trump from winning the Republican nomination or putting him in custody. They tried hard to end Trump’s efforts but they never quite succeeded. That does not mean a nasty surprise does not await the former president as the election nears. In 1992, on the weekend before the election, President George H.W. Bush received bad news when Independent Counsel Lawrence Walsh obtained a grand jury re-indictment of Reagan’s former Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger as part of the Iran-Contra Scandal. In 2000, days before the November 7 election, Thomas J. Connolly of Maine, a prominent defence attorney and former Democratic candidate for governor confirmed that George W. Bush had been arrested in 1976 for drunk driving in his state. In 2016 Hillary Clinton’s campaign was rocked when James Comey, then-FBI director announced in a letter his intent to review additional emails related to Clinton’s private email server as part of a larger investigation into Clinton’s use of personal email for public business. Could 2024 present Trump with a new problem?
Jack Smith, the Special Counsel investigating any legal interference with the transfer of power after the 2020 election or the certification of the electoral vote count, recently attempted to resurrect the case against Trump after it was slapped down. Elie Honig, a CNN legal analyst critiqued Smith’s actions as election interference, stating in an article for the New Yorker Magazine, “The larger, if less obvious, headline is that Smith has essentially abandoned any pretense; he’ll bend any rule, switch up on any practice — so long as he gets to chip away at Trump’s electoral prospects.” At this point, there’s simply no defending Smith’s conduct on any sort of principled or institutional basis. “But we need to know this stuff before we vote!” is a nice bumper sticker, but it’s neither a response to nor an excuse for Smith’s unprincipled, norm-breaking practice. (It also overlooks the fact that the Justice Department bears responsibility for taking over two and a half years to indict in the first place.)”
No one knows what surprises lurk behind the October election door, but the candidates better buckle up. There are always journalists looking to make a name or break a story. Shadowy figures love to come forward if the prospect of fame or money exists. Hidden agendas can find traction when the stakes are high. These touch on but a few possibilities. The Longshoreman’s strike serves as one reminder of how quickly one issue can mushroom into several. How things unfold remains a mystery waiting to be disclosed, a riddle resolved, or a problem unveiled. With just a few weeks to go will there be an October surprise that boosts Trump back to the presidency or Harris into it? Stay tuned.
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who now works part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, where he earned a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
