The calendar facing Pierre Poilievre should remind him of how different a world he expected just a few months ago. Six months ago, the Conservative leader expected a majority government victory. Since then, his expected opponent’s party ran the sitting prime minister off Parliament Hill in a disappearing act worthy of the great Harry Houdini. Since Justin Trudeau’s resignation, his sightings have been rare and his thoughts unknown. Three people deserve credit for this improvement in Canadians’ lives.
The restoration of Donald Trump to the American presidency posed a severe test for Trudeau, but the Liberal leader’s whimpering and submissive visit to Mar-a-Lago soon after Trump’s election informed his fellow countrymen that Canada desperately needed a new leader with a different voice. Trump repeatedly humiliated Trudeau, disparaging the prime minister, his country, and his political future.
Meanwhile, on home turf, within his own political fiefdom, Trudeau faced opposition from his finance minister, who decided she had swallowed enough of his zany socialism and wanted no part of being tagged as the keeper of the books who drove Canadian finances further into the ditch, deeper into a quagmire. Chrystia Freeland, rather than announce an economic update filled with gimmicks, tricks, smoke screens, and shifting numbers, chose to resign just days from having to front this fraud on Canadian taxpayers. This second punch to the gut left Trudeau dazed and down for the count, his resignation inevitable. But before all of this, a weakened Trudeau had been driven far into unpopularity, looking like a lame-duck politician who needed a miracle. The Conservative Party of Canada and its leader, Pierre Poilievre, had successfully turned Trudeau into the most disliked politician in a generation. Their campaign-like ads, ceaseless attacks, and unremitting efforts to sow doubts about Trudeau were so successful that the prime minister stood defenceless when the grim reaper came in the form of Trump and Freeland. Poilievre and his party had achieved their end but failed to anticipate the next move on the chessboard.
Noises about Mark Carney, the former Bank Governor in both Canada and England, being courted as the next Liberal leader were rumbling in Ottawa, but Poilievre and the Conservatives concluded the polls made them invincible. The Liberals’ lengthy rule, their ill-advised partnership with Jagmeet Singh and the NDP, and the unpopularity of their policies strengthened Poilievre’s belief that his victory was certain; size remaining the only mystery. Unfortunately, Poilievre believed his press clippings and the lessons learned were ones that had been discovered long ago. A victim of his own success, the CPC leader faced a new opponent who had the advantage of becoming the new prime minister, a fresh face, and a man who Canadians sized up as serious about the job as his predecessor had been buffoonish. Mr. Carney won the Liberal leadership in a walk, charmed Canadians with his phlegmatic demeanour and called an election before any of his honeymoon goodwill could disappear. That only began Poilievre’s problems. A close election broke for Carney, and the Conservatives never caught up, barely preventing a majority government for a party that was once more than 20 points behind the CPC in public polls. Worse, a rumour that most Conservative strategists scoffed at came true. Poilievre was in danger of losing his seat in Carleton, a riding he had held since 2004. All of this to ask, what must Poilievre do next? What are his prospects?
The Conservative Party of Canada has rallied behind him, and he will run in a by-election, likely to be called this summer. After spending half the summer campaigning, he will head back to Parliament this fall and re-establish his leadership, reconnect with Canadians, hold Carney to account, and regain the support he and his party have lost in the intervening months since Carney became Prime Minister. Carney has demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of the Trump tariffs, the challenges of leading a new government, and the unexpected developments on the geopolitical front. Poilievre will have to make the case without the usual drama or with the advantage of attacking a lightweight like Trudeau. The Conservative leader must have a daily strategy of asking pointed questions seriously that cut to what best serves Canadians, how Canadians feel about the problems, and what alternatives the CPC offers.
If Poilievre can cross that Rubicon, he may stand a chance of improving his standings in the polls and being able to make a case at the Calgary Convention in January that he deserves another chance to fight the next election. To decrease the resemblance to Trump, he must also temper his populist instincts in his speeches, rallies, and policies. The dismissal of Jenny Byrne, his closest advisor, would expedite these major shifts, even though she possesses significant skills and a strong history with former Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Premier Doug Ford of Ontario. Without Byrne’s removal as Poilievre’s right-hand, he will continue to emphasize parts of the Conservative platform that Canadians have rejected. Poilievre’s strong April showing shouldn’t be disregarded, but the political climate now requires a fight for the voters Trudeau alienated, but who feel at ease with Carney.
Carney, like other leaders from different eras, brings a new twist to the political world. His economic past, unclear political leanings, and pragmatism create significant hurdles for those opposing him. For good or ill, many Canadians find him extremely comforting. He does not present as larger-than-life; he projects a modesty befitting the office and presents a blandness that makes it easy for average Canadians to relax after years of turmoil under Trudeau and the regrettable agreement with the NDP. If Poilievre hopes to move beyond the shadows of his fiery rhetoric before the Carney era, he will need to make peace with the strengths of his new opponent. Applying solutions or bromides to Trudeau and his government will not work in the Carney era. Poilievre and his team will have to adjust and do so nimbly. The Conservative leader will have the fall session to make his case. If he fails to do so, he will face a review in January that will demand a leadership contest. All bets are off if that happens, especially if top-flight candidates decide to run. For insight into a potential outcome, Poilievre might consider speaking with Joe Clark, a former Conservative leader who faced this same challenge in 1983 and came in second. Poilievre has a small window now to decide his future. Like a view from outside, everyone watching will soon know if he made the right choices.
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who worked part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar until being appointed Executive Director at Redeemer Bible Church in October 2023. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, earning a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
