The constantly changing landscape of Canadian politics means that one week can produce wildly different headlines, social media posts, and polling results from the next. For the first time since Mark Carney became prime minister last March, Pierre Poilievre is making headway. Polls released recently show Poilievre and his Conservative team in a position to threaten Carney’s hold on government, possibly even forming a majority. What has changed? Why has the opposition leader forged ahead, and can it last? Northern Perspective, an independent Canadian media channel, allows for a case to be made explaining Carney’s drop in the polls and Poilievre’s rise. Host Ryan Davies presented a clear and evidence-based description of what has happened since the Liberals presented and passed their budget in parliament last month. The expanding deficit, broken promises, affordability concerns, and floor-crossing high-jinx have combined to raise questions about the Carney government and its leader. The change in status could not have come at a better time for Poilievre, who faces a leadership convention in January and needs a solid endorsement coming out of the Calgary gathering.
WHAT HAS CHANGED?
November’s Mainstreet poll gave the prime minister a +15 rating with 56 per cent approving of him and only 41 per cent disapproving. By December, Carney’s rankings had changed from +15 to -5% with 44 per cent now approving and disapproval up to 49 per cent. Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre has improved from -6 to a wash, with about 45 per cent giving a thumbs up and 45 per cent a thumbs down. If you break down those numbers further, it means Poilievre has closed a 21 per cent gap and now leads Carney by about five points. The opposition leader, who may not be well-liked, has nevertheless managed to regain influence. Canadians, not thrilled with Carney’s broken promises, delayed plans, and increasing food costs, are taking a second look at Poilievre. Canadians observe Carney promoting a particular agenda but achieving scant progress on his promises to stimulate the Canadian economy and create employment opportunities for Canadians.
In addition, the wrong direction numbers have been reversed. The new numbers suggest 52 per cent of Canadians think Carney and his government are taking Canada down the wrong path. These attitudes are fueling Poilievre’s revival. Canadians are reconsidering the man they seemed poised to elect prime minister a year ago. What goes up must come down. Carney’s popularity cannot defy natural laws.
EXPANDING DEFICIT
As an economist, Carney knows that the spending issues have grown out of control, but neither he nor his party has the stomach to tackle these matters head-on. While promising to rebuild the military, provide affordable housing, boost resource industries, and reduce inflation, the prime minister has little to show for his efforts. The budget passed in November includes a whopping $78-billion deficit. This kind of government largesse puts pressure on regular Canadians’ borrowing, planning, or achievements. What it can lead to includes higher interest rates and bigger tax payments. Working Canadians, already paying more at the grocery store, facing longer waits for medical care, watching their neighbourhood schools overflow, and still unsure about the number of immigrants being permitted into the country, wonder about the wisdom of these policies. They do not differ significantly from the Trudeau government, and Carney was to serve as a remedy for the perceived excesses of his predecessor. The situation could become a long-term problem for Carney and possibly lead to the downfall of his government unless there’s a marked improvement in the coming quarter.
BROKEN PROMISES
Canadians are unsure if Carney has lied to them and broken promises, or if he misspoke and can’t address the problems, nor correct them. He looks either untrustworthy or incapable, neither of which suits the moment. The former banker’s appeal to boomers (born from 1946 to 64) brought him over the finish line in April and holds him in the race at present. They are confident that the 60-year-old Carney, just born outside the Boomer window, has the answers. But does he? So far, no trade deal with U.S. President Donald Trump; no new pipelines; immigration is down, but still high; and housing problems have not gone away. People are patient enough to give him a chance, but they may not be so charitable to the party, one that has been in power for over a decade and holds no charm for a majority of voters. Carney has used up a lot of time. If things do not demonstrably improve in the next few months, the well-travelled businessman may find himself once again looking for a soft landing atop a global conglomerate ready to follow his prescriptions. With his window closing, he needs to take some bold steps. No one knows if he has it in him, but we are about to find out.
AFFORDABILITY
Being out of touch or being perceived as elite may be the worst reputation a politician can earn. Carney sits on a precipice. As a wealthy investment banker, Carney also graduated from Harvard and Oxford. Average Canadians do not relate to his lifestyle and wonder if decades of living amongst the wealthy classes have not made him insensitive to making ends meet. As prices for staple items at the grocery store go unaddressed or remain high, the sense that he cares drops. His reply to a question at the G20 Summit in South Africa last month haunts him. John Paul Tasker of the CBC on Nov. 25 reported, “We’ve had discussions. I’ve been busy,” Carney said when asked about connecting with Trump. “He’s got other things to do and we’ll re-engage when it’s appropriate.” Asked again to detail when he last spoke to Trump, Carney said: “Who cares? I mean, it’s a detail. I spoke to him. I’ll speak to him again when it matters.” Tariffs are driving up costs. Liking or disliking Trump will not get costs under control. It may be okay for boomers, who have pensions, savings, and no mortgage, to play a long game, but not so for folks on a tight budget, dealing with large grocery bills, increasing utility costs, higher property taxes, and leaders too glib to give straight answers or take their problems seriously. Carney invited accountability at his first press conference after becoming prime minister. It should not be a surprise to him that these issues are coming home to roost. Poilievre has closed the gap on this one and has a new ad going out for Christmas that hammers home the issue. The ad, with “Jingle Bells” playing, lists a long series of issues and blames the Liberals and Carney for creating problems and for their unwillingness to address them. Seniors and families unable to afford food, two million Canadians using food banks, fewer presents under the tree, and the message that only Conservatives have a plan to make things affordable.
FLOOR CROSSERS
Having written about this at some length recently, this author will stress the point made in the article. It may be legal to run for one party and then switch shortly after the election, but it doesn’t make it ethical or a good idea. A significant number of Canadians, lacking familiarity with the historical context of parliament, tend to disapprove of politicians who are perceived to be driven by self-interest in their actions. As a collective, they have already lost faith in the group and no longer trust them. Watching individual ones try to explain why they are ignoring the wishes of those who sent them to parliament could also come back to bite this government.
WILL IT LAST?
Are the polling shifts lasting? Hard to guess, but they seem to coincide with the budget and what has failed to happen after months of promises. If Carney’s numbers are now underwater until things improve, then Poilievre has a second chance. He will have to take full advantage and drive home his plan positively, harp on financial issues, and be prepared to confront the MAGA folks in his party. If he does, Christmas may last well into 2026 for Poilievre and the Conservatives.
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who worked part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar until being appointed Executive Director at Redeemer Bible Church in October 2023. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, earning a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
