Predicting a federal election date is now a mug’s game. Pictured: Ontario Premier Doug Ford. Photo Credit: Doug Ford/X.
Last week, federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh reneged on his promise to support the minority Liberal government on any non-confidence votes, thereby preventing an early election.
This not only complicates life for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. It just added another wildcard to Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s own calculations over whether to call an early election.
In recent weeks, rumours have swirled at Queen’s Park that Ford would go early, perhaps as soon as this fall. Provincial legislation formally sets the next date for June 2026, but governments can change it if they wish.
Reasons for such a move varies. One theory is that Ford wants to take advantage of his current public opinion poll standings – now in majority government territory. Another claims he is anxious to get out ahead of the results of an RCMP investigation into the government’s earlier decisions regarding farmland in the so-called “green belt.”
Ford has stated publicly many times that he welcomes the police investigation as he has nothing to hide. The Opposition of course disagrees. But even if police find that staff did nothing illegal, a report could serve to stir up controversy again. So better to try and get an election over with early, goes the thinking.
The challenge with this theory is that the provincial government has no idea when such a report could come. It could just as easily land right in the middle of an early election.
Still others speculated that Ford wants to get a provincial vote over with before the federal government’s regularly scheduled election next fall.
Current poll standings show federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to be the likely winner of that race. And if history is any indication, Ontario voters seem to prefer different political parties to hold power in Ottawa and Queen’s Park.
According to this theory, if the Conservatives win federally, voters will be less inclined to vote for the provincial Conservatives again. Hence the motive to get a provincial election over with early, before Ottawa heads to the polls next fall.
Singh’s announcement complicates things even further. Predicting a federal election date is now a mug’s game. Will the NDP withdraw its support for the government on the next confidence vote this fall, sparking an election? Will they wait until next spring’s federal budget? Who knows? Singh is certainly not giving any hints.
Premiers get to make a lot of decisions but the most critical is when to pull the plug and ask voters for another mandate. The goal of course, is to pick a date when you think the odds are highest that you will win.
Lots of factors come into play. For example, one of the reasons Ontario Premier David Peterson called an election a year early was fear of an anticipated economic downturn.
But Peterson’s decision to go early is a good object lesson to ponder. Voters were not happy with the early call and he was not able to explain why. Instead of an easy win, the Liberals were soundly defeated and the NDP won its first majority government.
Ford and his advisors are of course, aware of all these factors. What happens in Ottawa is out of their control. The timing of a police report may or may not be predictable. Polls are notoriously fickle.
No doubt, it is all provoking lively debates inside Queen’s Park.
But whatever the timing, early or as regularly scheduled, there is one critical factor that the government is also contemplating. What is the ballot question? What will motivate potential Conservative voters to line up at the polls and vote, early or otherwise?
Reporting successful progress on the previous election’s promises is critical for a sitting, two-term government. And that will be a list with a lot of checkmarks on it, no doubt.
But elections are more than a report card on past performance, important as that will be. Voters will also want to know why the government wants – or needs – another mandate. What is the new proposed plan? And if early, why?
Until Ford and his team are confident they have the answer to both questions, they would be wise to wait.
Janet Ecker is a former Ontario Finance Minister, Minister of Education, Minister of Community and Social Services and Government House Leader in the governments of Premier Mike Harris and Premier Ernie Eves. After her political career, she served as the founding CEO of the Toronto Financial Services Alliance, a public-private partnership dedicated to building Toronto region into an international financial centre. She currently sits on a number of corporate and non-profit boards, agencies and advisory committees.
Ms. Ecker received the Order of Canada for her public service contributions and was recognized as one of the “Most Influential People in the World’s Financial Centres” by Financial Centres International. She also received a “Canada’s Most Powerful Women: Top 100 Award” from the Women’s Executive Network and the Richard Ivey School of Business, among other awards. She is also one of the founders of Equal Voice, a national, multi-partisan organization working to elect more women.
