No new pipeline. For now.
That was the takeaway from Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first raft of so-called major national projects, announced last week.
After intense lobbying from Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Canadians who see Canada’s energy sector as the key to unlocking future economic growth, Carney chose to punt.
Instead, he announced a series of projects the federal government would fast track, some of which are already well underway.
This includes support for expanding Canada’s natural gas production in Kitimat, British Columbia; building of a small modular nuclear reactor in Bowmanville, Ontario; and planning high-speed rail from Toronto to Quebec City.
Carney has long said that for a project to make the major projects list, it must have support, or the potential for support, from the private sector.
But, as Smith has long noted, Trudeau-era laws remain in place that are standing in the way of proponents coming forward.
“Why would an oil sands company, in this environment, knowing that there’s an emissions cap that would result in them curtailing 2.1 million barrels of production, pledge new barrels to a pipeline that would go to a coast where there’s a tanker ban?” Smith asked.
Smith, of course, was talking about her longstanding desire to see a pipeline built from the oil sands in Alberta to the Port of Prince Rupert in B.C., with oil to then be taken on tankers to potential export markets in Asia and elsewhere.
Even though such a pipeline was not included on Carney’s initial list, Smtih remains optimistic.
Another batch of so-called major projects is set to come forward in a matter of months and Smith hopes that’s where a pipeline might find its way onto the list.
According to Smith, both her government and Carney’s now have negotiating teams in place, and they intend to negotiate further going forward.
“Now his team is in place, my team is in place, and we’re having very constructive discussions,” Smith added.
Here’s to hoping that Smith’s optimism won’t be met with the same Liberal intransigence we’ve seen over the past decade.
The bad laws that are in place that are currently standing in the way of the investment Smith so dearly wants to see – including the emissions cap and the northern B.C. tanker ban – were passed into law by almost all the ministers that now surround Carney at the federal Cabinet table.
That, as well Carney’s background as a champion of the net zero movement, including at the United Nations, plus his insistence on giving the B.C. NDP government a veto over potential future projects, is why so many Canadians remain skeptical that a northern B.C. pipeline will come to fruition.
For Smith’s pipeline to become a reality, Carney would have to do three unlikely things: repudiate signature climate change laws passed under former prime minister Justin Trudeau; abandon his own prior climate change warrior beliefs; and go back on his insistence on giving Premier David Eby a veto over new a new pipeline going through B.C.
Those are major hurdles. But Carney has proven himself to be willing to become a ruthless pragmatist in the past.
Carney’s commitment to scrap the consumer carbon tax, which he later followed through on, both abandoned Trudeau-era policies and departed from the prime minister’s own background as a longtime advocate for carbon taxes.
It may seem unlikely that Carney will pull another rabbit out of his hat on pipelines, but that’s a bet Smith seems to be making.
It’s either that or, at the very least, Smith is willing to give Carney a little more time before publicly berating him for refusing to get join the pipeline parade.
The reality is that Canada’s economy is on the verge of a recession. Joblessness numbers are up. The deficit is skyrocketing. If ever there was a time to make the case for more pipelines to fuel future economic growth, now’s it.
For the sake of Canada’s economic future, let’s hope Carney is doing more than just stringing the Alberta government along on pipelines.
Jay Goldberg is the Canadian Affairs Manager at the Consumer Choice Center. He previously served as the Ontario Director at the Canadian Taxpayers Federation and a policy fellow at the Munk School of Public Policy and Global Affairs. Jay holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Toronto.
