Housing starts in St. Catharines – Niagara were up 17 per cent in January compared to a year prior. Photo Credit: Pexels.
Housing starts in St. Catharines – Niagara in January were much stronger than housing starts in the rest of the province compared to a year prior, according to a new report by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).
Across Canada, housing starts were up by seven per cent in January compared to January 2024 in population centres with populations of over 10,000.
However, trends were rather negative in major Ontario population centres.
Housing starts in major urban centres in Ontario were down significantly, including in Toronto (-41 per cent), London (-70 per cent), Windsor (-79 per cent), and Hamilton (-88 per cent).
St. Catharines – Niagara managed to buck the provincial trend, with housing starts up 17 per cent compared to January 2024. That’s well above the national average and marks a significant contrast with other major urban centres in Ontario.
Growth in St. Catharines – Niagara was fuelled by multi-unit housing, as single-detached home starts actually fell by 51 per cent. By contrast, growth in all other types of housing in St. Catharines – Niagara increased by 118 per cent.
The CMHC says much of the growth in housing starts in Canada was fuelled by purpose-built rentals in Quebec and British Columbia.
The CMHC also sees potential clouds on the horizon for the housing sector.
“Foreign trade risks add significant uncertainty for housing construction going forward,” said Tania Bourassa-Ochoa, CMHC’s Deputy Chief Economist. “In our recently released Housing Market Outlook, CMHC projected housing starts to slow down from 2025 to 2027, mainly due to decreases in condominium apartment starts.”
Total monthly housing starts across Canada increased by three per cent in January compared to December 2024.
Should 25 per cent tariffs be imposed on Canada by the United States, the CMHC expects investment uncertainty, a weaker Canadian dollar, lower export revenues, job losses, higher inflation, and a greater recession risk. All of these factors would lead to an even softer performance in the housing sector.
The federal government’s recent moves to reduce immigration will also lead to slower economic growth, according to the CMHC.
Still, the CMHC expects the Bank of Canada to continue to cut interest rates, which could have a positive impact on the housing sector. Lower rates may allow those who have been unable to purchase homes because of higher interest rates to get into the market.
Because Ontario’s housing market is particularly unaffordable, sales in Ontario are expected to remain below their 10-year averages. That could negatively impact the momentum toward more housing starts in the province, as a hot real estate market is usually needed to encourage the construction of additional housing.
In particular, the CMHC expects pre-construction condominium apartments to see lower demand across Ontario. These types of homes are often bought by investors, but because of weaker resale and rental markets, these will be less enticing for investors going forward.
Rental housing did reach record levels in 2024 due to government involvement, a larger renter population and strong rent growth at the time of planning. But this momentum is expected to slow in the coming years, calling into question whether governments will reach their housing goals.
Housing starts are expected to fall in 2025 compared to 2024, with even weaker growth in 2026 and 2027.
Jay Goldberg is the Ontario Director at the Canadian Taxpayers Federation. He previously served as a policy fellow at the Munk School of Public Policy and Global Affairs. Jay holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Toronto.
