On a recent episode of Mark Halperin’s “Next Up” podcast, the experienced journalist interviewed former GOP Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich, to gauge his perceptions about how things are shaping up for the 2028 race to replace President Donald Trump. With the next presidential election three and a half years away, guessing who will run and who might be favoured is a popular pastime for dedicated and casual observers. The discussion between Gingrich, a 2012 candidate, and Halperin drew no conclusions, but clarified the Republican race as narrow and the Democratic one as wide open. In this article, Halperin projects where he sees the race in this nascent period.
Halperin, a reporter with deep contacts and broad insights, offered a theory about the Democratic nomination fight that is hard to argue with. He believes the Democratic Party comprises several individuals but is extremely flawed in terms of a national race. He also believes the Republican Party has what he calls asymmetrical advantages that make them the favourite to win. As he points out, there will be no incumbent in 2028 assuming Trump serves a full term. Halperin suggests that in the modern era, starting in 1988, there have been four occasions without an incumbent (1988, 2000, 2008, and 2016) and a different dynamic defined each race. In three cycles, a vice-president wanted to succeed the president, but JD Vance represents something different from these candidates. In 1988, 2000, and 2016, the current president offered lukewarm support to his vice president, forcing each to run a tough campaign, and with Joe Biden, no campaign (Obama told Biden it was Hillary Clinton’s turn). Halperin holds a firm conviction: Trump will enthusiastically endorse JD Vance for 2028, thus assuring him of the nomination. It may scare off any serious candidates from running, giving Vance a clear path to raise money, bank it for the fall campaign, and be able to overwhelm his Democratic opponent before he/she can get started.
White House observers will testify to Vance’s political standing compared to Bush, Gore, or Biden. While vice president, none of these men was permitted to build their political standing. As Halperin says, “They were all ambitious. They all wanted to run for president. They knew that after two terms, assuming the ticket won, they would want to run.” Any efforts to fundraise, meet activists around the country, become visible on important policies, or build a network of advisors were discouraged or shut down. Vance appears to have played his hand perfectly.
Halperin asserts: “He gets along with the president, with the cabinet, with the political advisors. He’s made the top fundraiser for the Republican National Committee. That’s never happened to put someone like him, a vice president, in a position to interact regularly with the party’s top donors. He’s done it in Las Vegas. He’s done it in New York. He’s done it, I think, in a few other cities. And that’s a huge advantage, to be able to say to the party, I’m the man. I’m the one. And to know all the people, to know the activists, the fundraisers, et cetera, he has a huge, huge leg up.”
Vance can raise millions, maybe billions of dollars and then leverage the power of the presidency and the vice presidency to flood the zone, making the Democratic nominee who survives a protracted fight overcome significant challenges.
Approaching the Democrats, Halperin, while polite, couldn’t identify a leading candidate, nor even a group of top contenders. He has spoken to people within the party all over the nation, and he hears lots of names, but no consensus, unlike any cycle he has covered. Halperin describes the situation as dire for the Democrats: “I look at these candidates and I see no political athlete…no one with the capacity to do the things you need to do…to win a general (election), raise the money, announce policies, dominate the media.” Stymied in trying to select someone or even a top group of potential nominees, Halperin devised a candidate who could face off against Vance, presuming the Republicans nominate him in 2028. His Frankenstein candidate possessed ten qualities selected from different Democrats. This solution highlights the challenges facing the Democratic Party in the run-up to the 2028 election.
Beginning with Pete Buttigieg, Halperin lists “go on anything confidence” as an important presidential quality. Trump will go to any show at any time. He made the rounds, guesting on sports shows and podcasts, talking to anyone who would listen. Buttigieg has proven he will do the same.
Governor Newsom of California searches for what’s modern. He avoids the past in terms of culture, society, technology, and politics. He always thinks about the future. This allows him to connect with new voters, those beginning to get interested in politics.
A third trait belongs to Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan. As a battleground state governor, she understands the importance of staying viable. She knows how to prioritize economics and avoid the wrong side of cultural issues.
Former congressman, White House chief of staff, and mayor of Chicago, Rahm Emmanuel, knows how to fundraise. To combat Vance, the Democratic nominee will have to raise money by the truckloads. Emmanuel knows all the rich Democrats, and he did it for Bill Clinton in 1992.
Senator Amy Klobuchar has the determination to be president. She has the discipline to get up every morning and do the things necessary to win. She will do it fiercely and with a focused mind. Winning will be a non-negotiable for her and her team.
The sixth trait belongs to Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. He can fill the shoes of the poet and orator. Shapiro’s intelligence and meticulous nature are evident in his dedication and inspirational, aspirational leadership.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York passes what Halperin calls the mute button test. Her TV appearances are always a hit, drawing in viewers who are keen to hear her message. AOC is not boring, and people will tune in or turn up the volume when she is on.
Biden’s Commerce Secretary, Gina Raimondo, lacks name recognition, except in the business community. To overcome the GOP’s edge in this sector, the Democrats need an individual similar to Raimondo. Many view her as pro-business, a big plus for a presidential candidate.
Congressman Ro Khanna (CA) is skilled at bridging the gap between policy and the public’s concerns. As Halperin notes, “…the Democratic Party has gone for several decades now without getting through new policies that appeal to people in a basic sense.” He thinks Khanna can do this.
The last quality belongs to Wes Moore of Maryland, who has a biography. He grew up humbly, served in the military, led a non-profit and helped disadvantaged people.
Halperin did not put former vice president Kamala Harris on that list. He acknowledges her name recognition, but believes these other qualities surpass fame. Before he spoke to Gingrich (and his impressions will be documented in a future column), Halperin described the foundations of the coming campaign. JD Vance will have many advantages if he secures Trump’s endorsement. The Democratic Party is already playing catch-up as 2028 comes into focus.
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who worked part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar until being appointed Executive Director at Redeemer Bible Church in October 2023. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, earning a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
