The Democratic Party was the initial focus of a previous article’s assessment of the 2028 presidential race. In the second part, the focus will shift more to the Republican Party. Mark Halperin’s podcast, Next Up, provided the discussion points, and his interview with former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich offered outstanding insights into what will likely happen inside the Republican race for the 2028 nomination.
Gingrich understands the 2028 race to be larger than what has happened during the past year or two in politics. He sees the MAGA movement as enduring, important, and defining for this age. He knows Trump’s personality and charisma contributed to the unusual success of overcoming two impeachments, four efforts to jail him, two assassination attempts, and endless media opposition. But the movement has also created a candidate for the times. People in the Republican sphere, or what may be called those right of centre on the political spectrum had grown weary of repeated efforts to win elections appealing to squishy voters who had no loyalty to the right, swayed back and forth between both parties, and wore moderation as a virtue, happy for the state to keep growing and Democrats to further define America.
Trump began conversations with Gingrich in 2015 about running for president, drawing on Gingrich’s experience in 2012. When discussing Trump, the historian surfaces in Gingrich. He immediately refers to Andrew Jackson, America’s seventh president from 1829-37. Like Jackson, Trump has taken on the national establishment, infuriating the elites, including the academic institutions held in highest regard. Gingrich contends that his perceived threat to the New York Times, Washington Post, and Harvard provokes unfair and biased news coverage. Trump’s intelligence provides a piece of evidence, according to Gingrich and Halperin. The intelligence Trump possesses lies outside these institutions’ capacity to acknowledge. He does not read books and devour their contents, produce policies with detailed formulations, nor articulate the legal arguments of a constitutional case. His intelligence spans three or four levels that have left the Democratic Party in its wake, unable to understand his appeal and unwilling to adapt to the challenge he presents.
His intuitive skills are enormous. He absorbs information and scenes around him and strategically uses them to communicate a vision, respond to a crowd, and identify what people want addressed. While he speaks, he absorbs the crowd’s reactions, plans his next move, and plots ways to make greater inroads converting people to Trump, the MAGA movement, and the new Republican Party. There may be no better politician in American history at figuring this out and turning a fringe political opportunity into a historical two-term presidency. As Halperin summarizes, “One way he’s intelligent, you’re (Gingrich) saying, is he has the capacity to think in the moment, to talk in the moment, but be thinking about other things, and connecting them all up, and processing them.”
Building models to overcome shortfalls serves as another area of intelligence that Trump possesses, according to Gingrich. Coming out of Queens, he had to build a model to succeed in Manhattan. The challenge became to construct a new way of dealing with a world he did not know. One of the earliest lessons he learned occurred when he wanted to redo what became Trump Tower. He agreed to keep the Art Deco front, and the New York Times loved it, but when Trump found out it would cost $3 million, he balked. The Times attacked him relentlessly, but he received several calls from people who had no idea he was doing condominiums. He realized that any media was better than no media, and bad media beats no media. Constantly building models became a skill for Trump, and adapting to new circumstances is an intelligence he has mastered.
Developing a model to address Putin’s actions comes next. Trump thought he could reason with Putin, make a deal, but that seems unlikely. Putin will soon find out how tough Trump can be, as he will view this as an act of survival. He understands the advantages of being an alpha. He analyzes situations and exploits his power to achieve his aims. His ability to size up people, understand what motivates them and figure out what he can get from them looms large.
He interprets the media and politicians Halperin has covered better than anyone, including former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. Obama’s press relationships were smoother than Clinton’s, who had notable blind spots. Trump speaks with everyone all the time. He provides press access, works with journalists directly, and leverages them as they’ve leveraged him. The coup de grâce, however, is how badly people on the Left and those in the media underestimate him. They continue to do so at their peril. His patriotism, strong work ethic, and belief in meritocracy infuriate the left. In response, the Democratic Party has behaved irrationally about Trump and created a tremendous opportunity for the new Republican Party to appeal to blue-collar workers, something President Reagan did well and would undoubtedly approve. On big issues where Americans feel strongly, 70 to 80 per cent in favour or opposed, Democrats continue to come down on the side that most alienates middle America. This poses a significant problem for 2028.
JD Vance could effortlessly win the Republican nomination in 2028. Gingrich asserts that a successful second Trump term will inevitably lead to a Vance triumph. If Trump’s message and plan are working, then Vance will be the odds-on favourite to win in 2028. There could be some governors or billionaires who decide to challenge him, but as long as no wedge divides Trump from Vance, one can assume an endorsement will follow. Unless Democrats choose either Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro or Maryland Governor Wes Moore, an Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) nomination would likely hand Vance and the Republicans an easy election victory. It will come down to Democrats adjusting to the new paradigm. They will either double down on their movement to socialist ideals, progressive principles, and cultural subversion or acknowledge that winning a few large urban counties while losing great geographical swaths of the nation adds up to long-term political prison. Though a few Democrats are stirring, the dominant energy comes from those supporting “Free Palestine”, gender fluidity, and unrestricted immigration. Although the 2028 election seems distant, remember that past events may be more relevant than they appear.
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who worked part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar until being appointed Executive Director at Redeemer Bible Church in October 2023. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, earning a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
