The vote on April 28 for who will lead Canada is perhaps the most consequential vote Canadians will have had since the 1988 federal election when we decided the fate of a Canada – U.S. Free Trade Agreement. This month’s vote will decide the country’s energy and immigration policies, factor large in national unity issues, and determine the economic relationship Canada will have with its largest trading partner. The federal election presents a clear choice for Canadians, offering the contrasting promises and approaches of Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives.
A recent Angus Reid poll tracks the Liberals opening up a lead that will deliver a majority government for Carney. Political pundits suggest the Liberals’ rising fortunes are tied to the flood of news about American President Donald Trump and his tariff threats and the doomsday scenarios of what the tariffs will mean for Canada’s prosperity. Polling tells us that one in two Canadians over 60 years of age consider Trump to be the top campaign issue. This is in contrast to all younger age demographics that hold affordability and cost of living as the top issue in the election. The intense focus on Trump has resulted in a stampede of seniors, concerned about their comforts, placing their trust in Carney who they believe will be a better negotiator for Canadian interests.
The Liberals and Trump
In the opening days of the campaign, Carney was on the hustings asking Canadians to give him a majority government “to deal with Trump.” He reasoned that the Liberals need a majority to provide a strong mandate that will enable them to confront the U.S. in what is to be considered “the biggest crisis in our lifetimes.” At a campaign stop in Kitchener, Ontario he asserted, “We need a majority because we need big changes. The stronger the mandate is, the more effective we are going to be getting the best deal for Canada with respect to the Americans.”
Carney’s no nonsense electioneering on U.S. trade actually began prior to his election call, when jetting off for a European tour to meet with leaders in France, Britain, and the European Union. As Canadian prime minister he suggested Canada would realign trade priorities to enter into a closer trading partnership with European “allies” (something that is impossible to achieve anytime soon given Canada’s current import and export practices). This is something he reiterated in Ottawa when he called a press conference to state: “The old relationship we had with the United States—based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperations—is over.”
There are a number of important backstories to understand the Liberals’ “elbows up” approach to Trump and American trade. First, the Liberals’ strategy is being drawn up and orchestrated by Gerald Butts and the international consultancy Eurasia Group, which places Carney and his globalist worldview at odds with Trump’s nation-to-nation worldview. Second, Carney and Butts have John Podesta advising them on Washington political affairs, and Podesta is a well-known Democrat operative who served former president Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and headed up former president Joe Biden’s $375 billion environmental fund for subsidizing green groups and climate programs. Third, Carney’s role leading the United Nations’ global banking initiative GFANZ has him personally a subject of a U.S. congressional review that is critical of the U.N. and World Economic Forum’s activities – Carney is being accused of establishing a global “climate cartel.” And fourth, news broke this week that Carney, while chairman of Brookfield, oversaw the investment firm’s 99-year billion-dollar New York real estate agreement with Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law. So, unquestionably, Carney is a man (along with his strategists) whose reputation precedes him at the White House.
These backstories help to explain the congeniality displayed in the much publicized, private telephone call between Carney and Trump. It was reported out that Trump was very positive after talking to Carney – it was an “extremely productive” call and Trump looks forward to working with the Liberals after the election. Carney shared that he had “a very constructive conversation” and that “the leaders agreed to begin comprehensive negotiations about a new economic and security relationship immediately following the election.”
What was actually discussed between the two men has been brought into question by a rather frank column written by Ian Bremmer, the head of the Eurasia Group. This column states, “Canadian leaders have a political incentive to put up a bigger fight because Trump’s threats toward Canada’s economy and sovereignty have sharply inflamed nationalist sentiment north of the border in the run-up to the April 28 elections. However, I expect Ottawa will quietly fold shortly after the vote to ensure that ongoing relations with the US remain functional.”
Candice Malcom of Juno News provides an excellent commentary and video news report on this unsettling column: Eurasia Group President admits that Mark Carney will QUIETLY FOLD to the Americans after the election campaign.
Then, this week, after the theatrics of Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement of worldwide tariff actions – an event that revealed Canada would surprisingly not face new tariffs – Carney was quick to point out to Canadians that trade irritants still remained between the two countries. Carney combatively remarked, “The series of measures will directly affect millions of Canadians. We are going to fight these tariffs with countermeasures. We are going to protect our workers, and we are going to build the strongest economy in the G7.” He went on to say, “In a crisis, it’s important to come together. It’s essential to act with purpose and with force and that’s what we’ll do.”
It was the same Liberals’ “Elbows Up” rallying cry despite the good news that Trump had not proceeded with further actions against Canada. And yet, given the negotiating scenario shared by the Liberals’ Eurasia Group backroom, Canadians are left to wonder whether Carney is just mouthing a game face trash-talk because it plays well to his home town crowd. It is unsettling that the Liberals have not described details of their trade plans with the U.S. beyond April 28.
The Conservatives and Trump
Poilievre has been clear in his comments on tariffs and trade with the U.S. and he has already presented a detailed plan on how a Conservative government would deal with Trump. Poilievre made a public statement to the American President in the first week of the campaign: “If you keep attacking our economy, over the next four years, under a new Conservative government Canada will have completely rebuilt its economy so that we are no longer reliant on the U.S., and you will have lost the greatest trading partner and friend you ever had.” In making this statement, Poilievre observed, “I am confident that my plan will unleash a generational economic boom here at home, which we need because none of us know what Trump will do. The only thing we control is what we do at home. And the best way to stand up to him (Trump) is to be strong here.”
In another public statement condemning the U.S. tariffs, Poilievre argued Canada has to become more self-reliant. “We need to take drastic action to build an economic fortress in Canada, able to reach other markets around the world, repealing the anti-pipeline law, rapidly building LNG liquefaction plants, mines, factories, expanding and making our ports functional so that we can move our goods to other places around the world.”
The Conservative leader reasons, “Now is the time to take back control and relaunch our economy so that we can confront the president’s unjustified threats and tariffs in a position of strength. We will do this for our people, for our land, for our home, for Canada first—for a change.”
During a speech earlier this week in Toronto, Poilievre detailed his plan to manage the Canada-U.S. trade relationship (view speech here). He was specific on how the Conservatives would call for the renegotiations of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Trade Agreement to be fast-tracked, and he signaled his negotiating position, stating: “I will protect our border, our security, our resources, our farmers, including our supply-managed farmers, our fresh water, and our automotive workers. Also off the table: our sovereignty, our laws, our currency, our land, our water, our skies, our culture, our official languages, our resources, and Indigenous rights will remain in our control for all time.”
In that speech Poilievre emphatically stated “Canada will never be the 51st state” and he proceeded to lay out a three-point plan to move the country forward.
“First, our immediate response should be to impose reciprocal tariffs to discourage the American attacks…. [and] a Keep Canadians Working Fund, a targeted, temporary loan program for businesses directly hit, helping them keep workers on the job.
The second part is a plan to try and end this trade dispute….On day one as Prime Minister, I will propose to the President to accelerate renegotiations to replace CUSMA, bringing in a new deal on trade and security…. We should set a firm deadline to finalize a deal. And I will propose that both countries pause tariffs while we try to hammer out a deal. Keeping destructive tariffs kills jobs on both sides of the border and serves no purpose.
Third, while we will work with the Americans to stop illegal migration and drugs in both directions at our shared border, I will also demand America do its part to stop illegal guns coming into our country that are killing our people.”
Poilievre also addressed the recent suggested coziness between Trump and Carney and the fact that the U.S. President stated he would rather have a Liberal government to work with in the years to come. He commented, “Donald Trump knows that a fourth Liberal term under Mark Carney would mean an even weaker and poorer Canada that continues to be dependent on American markets and vulnerable to his threats. He knows that Mark Carney is opposed to making Canada an economic superpower. He knows that the Liberal agenda of blocking energy production and pipeline construction will keep us under his thumb… Trump knows that Mark Carney will keep Justin Trudeau’s industrial carbon tax on Canadian industry as well as Trudeau’s cap on Canadian energy, driving business south…. When you consider that Mark Carney’s ‘keep-it-in-the-ground’ agenda will make our economy even more dependent on the United States, it becomes very clear why Trump wants the Liberals to get a fourth term.”
“The last thing Donald Trump wants to see is a Canadian Prime Minister who will turn this country into an economic and resource powerhouse, with competitive taxes, that is open for business. That may not be good for President Trump, but that is exactly how we put Canada First,” observed Poilievre.
The reality is the Canada-U.S. relationship is this country’s greatest economic factor when it comes to Canadians’ standard of living, and future growth and prosperity. Canada exports 77 per cent of our goods and services to the U.S. and 51 per cent of all Canadian imports comes from south of the border. Therefore, the vote Canadians cast in this election between the Liberals and Conservatives is significant. Carney has signaled he will be using his political and business networks, will prefer to trade with European countries, and negotiate with the U.S. to mitigate economic harm. Poilievre has promised to rebuild Canadian industry to develop a new national economic resiliency, while pushing for an immediate renegotiation of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement. This is the choice for Canadians.
Next week: The contrasting approaches to developing the energy sector
Chris George is an advocate, government relations advisor, and writer/copy editor. As president of a public relations firm established in 1994, Chris provides discreet counsel, tactical advice and management skills to CEOs/Presidents, Boards of Directors and senior executive teams in executing public and government relations campaigns and managing issues. Prior to this PR/GR career, Chris spent seven years on Parliament Hill on staffs of Cabinet Ministers and MPs. He has served in senior campaign positions for electoral and advocacy campaigns at every level of government. Today, Chris resides in Almonte, Ontario where he and his wife manage www.cgacommunications.com. Contact Chris at chrisg.george@gmail.com.
