Every few months, Ottawa falls back into its favourite game: election speculation. The latest round started before Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne even finished reading his budget. Pundits and lobbyists are once again filling airtime predicting that Canada will head to the polls before Christmas.
They’re wrong.
This week’s budget is indeed the first test for Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government. With a minority in the House, the Liberals need at least one opposition party, Conservatives, Bloc Québécois, or NDP, to back the plan or risk defeat. The Conservatives have already said they won’t vote for it, demanding the government scrap the industrial carbon tax and cap the deficit at $42 billion, conditions Carney’s team has ruled out.
Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet is making costly asks too: higher Old Age Security, more generous health transfers, and interest-free loans for first-time homebuyers. Meanwhile, the NDP, leaderless and down to seven MPs, are hinting that some members might simply abstain to keep the government afloat.
So yes, the arithmetic is tight. But the political will for an election simply isn’t there.
Conservatives say they don’t want one. The Bloc may posture, but its own voters are tired. But more importantly, Canadians do not want another election. Especially not after one just six months ago.
And who could blame them? Families are trying to make ends meet as prices creep up and housing remains out of reach. The health-care system is stretched, the United States is flexing its trade muscles, and Russia continues to eye the Arctic. The last thing this country needs is a $600-million exercise in political vanity.
Yet some in Ottawa can’t help themselves. There’s a sense, mostly among the hyper-partisan, that another campaign might reset the chessboard, hand one party a few extra seats, and make their guy prime minister. The truth is, most Canadians are exhausted by that thinking. They want stability and solutions, not another few months of yard signs and talking points.
It’s worth remembering that Canadians haven’t given any party a majority in more than a decade. That’s not an accident. Voters seem to prefer forcing parties to cooperate, to compromise, to govern like adults.
Which brings us to this latest round of budget brinkmanship. If the government falls, it will be because politicians on all sides decided their own egos mattered more than the country’s priorities. It would be, frankly, pathetic.
Ottawa’s leaders should take a breath, remember why they’re there, and stop trying to bait one another into an unnecessary election. The Carney government’s decision to move the budget to the fall will only fuel this kind of speculation in future years, but that’s no excuse for Parliament to indulge in it now.
If Santa’s keeping a list, let’s hope he brings a little coal to the politicians rooting for a Christmas election. Canada has enough problems without adding campaign fatigue to the pile.
Daniel Perry is the Director of Federal Affairs at the Council of Canadian Innovators, leading national advocacy and engagement efforts. With experience in consulting and roles at the Senate of Canada, Queen’s Park, and the Canadian Criminal Justice Association, Daniel has helped political leaders and clients across various sectors achieve their public policy goals. A frequent media contributor and seasoned campaigner, Daniel holds a Master of Political Management from Carleton University.
