As New Democrats gather in Ottawa for tomorrow’s leadership debate, the stakes could not be higher. After their worst electoral showing in history, just seven seats and barely six percent of the vote, the NDP faces an existential choice: rebuild as a modern, broad-based movement or retreat to its labour roots and rebuild from the ground up.
This race is not simply about replacing Jagmeet Singh. It’s about defining what progressive politics will look like for the next decade, and whether the NDP can remain relevant in a country where the Liberals have moved to the center and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are dominating working-class voters once loyal to the orange banner.
Three of the six candidates running for the party’s top job, Edmonton MP Heather McPherson, filmmaker and activist Avi Lewis, and B.C. union leader Rob Ashton, represent three distinct visions for the future.
McPherson, the lone federal NDP MP in Alberta and the only sitting MP in the race, has embraced the “big tent” label. She argues the NDP’s future lies in expanding its reach beyond its ideological core. Her message is pragmatic: the NDP cannot shape policy or deliver results without seats. That approach puts her at odds with parts of the party that see compromise as selling out, a tension that mirrors broader debates across the global left.
Lewis offers the opposite diagnosis. For him, the problem isn’t that the NDP was too ideological, it’s that it wasn’t ideological enough. The grandson of former leader David Lewis and son of former Ontario leader Stephen Lewis, he has framed his campaign as a return to democratic socialism, promising wealth taxes, national rent caps, and a “public option” for groceries. Lewis argues the NDP lost its moral clarity under Singh’s supply-and-confidence deal with the Liberals, saying voters were “confused” about what the party stood for. His pitch: speak truth to power, name capitalism as the root of inequality, and rebuild trust with Canadians who feel left behind.
Then there’s Ashton, a longshoreman and union president whose message is blunt, and unmistakably blue-collar. His viral “class war” rallying cry has energized younger members online and rekindled nostalgia for the party’s working-class past. Ashton insists only a leader who has “drank coffee in a lunchroom” can win back workers who’ve drifted to the Conservatives. He hasn’t rolled out detailed policies yet, but his populist tone could resonate with union voters frustrated by the NDP’s perceived drift toward urban progressivism.
The tension between these visions, pragmatic expansion, ideological purity, and class-based populism, reflects deeper uncertainty about what kind of party the NDP wants to be. Can it build a national coalition that appeals to urban progressives and resource-sector workers alike? Or does it choose to become a smaller, more disciplined movement anchored in labour and social justice?
Tomorrow’s debate, hosted by the Canadian Labour Congress, will test those questions in front of the party’s traditional base: union members. It’s a symbolic setting. The NDP was built by workers for workers, but today many of those workers vote Conservative. The Liberals, meanwhile, have occupied much of the center-left terrain that once belonged to the New Democrats.
The 2011 “Orange Wave,” when Jack Layton swept the party into Official Opposition, now feels like a distant memory. Yet the choice facing New Democrats today is similar: whether to reach out, modernize, and govern, or double down on principle and protest. However, they answer that question, tomorrow’s debate will help determine not only the next NDP leader, but the future of progressive politics in Canada.
Daniel Perry is the Director of Federal Affairs at the Council of Canadian Innovators, leading national advocacy and engagement efforts. With experience in consulting and roles at the Senate of Canada, Queen’s Park, and the Canadian Criminal Justice Association, Daniel has helped political leaders and clients across various sectors achieve their public policy goals. A frequent media contributor and seasoned campaigner, Daniel holds a Master of Political Management from Carleton University.
