A future column will outline predictions for 2025. Pictured: Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Photo Credit: Pierre Poilievre/X.
As in previous years, this column will look back at the predictions this author made at the end of last year as to what would happen in 2024 and see how prescient – or not – those predictions were. Most economists and other prognosticators never do this as they typically end up more wrong than right. It’s important to look back though and see how the forecasts held up, and how they might inform other predictions going forward.
The first prediction had to do with the economy, with the expectation that Canada would experience a technical recession of two consecutive quarters of negative economic performance. It is debatable whether this came true or not, as economists have differed on whether or not Canada is in recession. Former Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz recently stated that although GDP growth has remained very slightly positive, the only reason that has happened is because the Liberal immigration policy has brought so many people into Canada so quickly that GDP has been kept artificially positive.
The better measure of GDP per capita, which is a good proxy for our standard of living, has continued to worsen throughout 2024, declining in five of the last six quarters. And even though we might not have technically experienced two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, Canadians will attest to the fact that they certainly believe they are experiencing a recession as labour market indicators worsen, food bank lines expand, inflation stubbornly refuses to come down and our dollar weakens.
A second part of this prediction was that inflation would remain higher than the Bank of Canada’s two per cent target throughout 2024, and this did indeed take place on average although it did dip slightly below two per cent in November. The recent weakness in the Canadian dollar following U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on Canada will ensure that inflation stays painfully high on all of the many commodities Canada imports from the U.S. in the coming months. Overall, last year’s economic expectations were pretty accurate, although depressing.
The second prediction was that the housing crisis would worsen, and it certainly has. Despite a lot of hot air emanating from politicians about this or that program to boost housing supply, the actual number of housing starts in Canada remains very inadequate to satisfy demand driven by sky-high immigration and the fact older Canadians are healthier and remaining in their houses longer than previous generations. Supply continues to be constrained by heavy taxation and red tape imposed by all levels of government on new residential construction. Interest rates did indeed come down in 2024 as expected, but the continued wide gap between housing demand and supply will persist well into the future unless some drastic policy changes take place to incent builders.
This author’s third prediction also came true, as we did not have a federal election in 2024 despite the desire for one by a significant majority of Canadians. The NDP continued to prop up the hapless Liberals in a series of non-confidence votes despite claiming to have “ripped up” the agreement between the two parties. Various last-ditch manoeuvres by the Liberals to try to improve their standing in the polls – such as the capital gains hike in April’s budget and the two-month HST pause over Christmas – did not convince Canadians to stop hating the Liberals. If anything, the poll numbers are worse for both Liberals and NDP as compared to a year ago.
The fourth prediction was for Donald Trump to win the U.S. election, which did happen in a very convincing manner as Trump dominated the Electoral College, the House of Representatives and the Senate as well as the popular vote. Also as predicted, the election of Trump has set off the expected accusations of Liberals, NDP and others on the left in an attempt to paint Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre as the Canadian Trump and turn voters against Poilievre as a result. This will undoubtedly accelerate when Trump is sworn in as President on Jan. 20, 2025. From all indications to date, Canadians aren’t falling for this one either as Poilievre’s popularity remains very high all across the country and recent by-elections suggest there may be very few safe Liberal seats remaining in Canada.
The fifth and final prediction was that global geopolitics will remain volatile with continued conflict in the Middle East and sabre-rattling by China and Russia. This author expected the anti-Semitic hate-fests taking place in our streets to start to peter out by the end of 2024, but that has not happened as yet. Unfortunately, weak governments at all levels with few exceptions has encouraged these bad actors to keep up the ridiculous and disruptive demonstrations, as has their financing by hostile powers such as Iran. Hopefully, the election of Trump will lead to more sanctions on the sponsors of terrorism world-wide and create some positive change in the world’s hot-spots.
In general, the predictions for 2024 turned out to be more good than bad. In a future column this author will tackle some expectations for 2025, which promises to be a year of significant and welcome change in direction with a new federal government in Ottawa, a new President in the U.S. and lots of turmoil on the international front. So buckle up – it’s going to be a wild ride.
Happy New Year!
She has published numerous articles in journals, magazines & other media on issues such as free trade, finance, entrepreneurship & women business owners. Ms. Swift is a past President of the Empire Club of Canada, a former Director of the CD Howe Institute, the Canadian Youth Business Foundation, SOS Children’s Villages, past President of the International Small Business Congress and current Director of the Fraser Institute. She was cited in 2003 & 2012 as one of the most powerful women in Canada by the Women’s Executive Network & is a recipient of the Queen’s Silver & Gold Jubilee medals.
