The betting odds indicate Harris and Trump in a dead heat. Pictured: Vice President Kamala Harris. Photo Credit: Kamala Harris/X.
The presidential sweepstakes has changed markedly over the past few weeks. Still, Americans have returned to where they were before President Joe Biden came out to debate on June 27 and removed all doubt about his ability to serve another four-year term. The race between former president Donald Trump and the recently elevated Vice President Kamala Harris resembles the stretch run at the Kentucky Derby. The two leading horses are jockeying for position and the outcome remains in doubt.
Just a month ago Democrats were split about whether to push Biden out because many feared the vice president might fare worse than the feeble president whose capacity seemed quite diminished. Today, after a few weeks of being acclaimed the nominee of the incumbent party, Harris has taken in gobs of money, closed the polls with Trump, and selected a running mate many believe will help put her over the top when the nation selects its next president on Nov. 5. With about three months to go before the results are announced, there are three reasons to think Harris can win and three reasons she will lose. Let’s examine each one with care.
WHY HARRIS WILL WIN
First reason: Generational change.
Kamala Harris will turn 60 in October. While not exceedingly young, she is almost two decades younger than Trump, who would become the oldest man to begin a full term in office if he were to be sworn in next January. Americans have always considered youthful candidates appealing, especially when age looks problematic. No one would mistake Trump’s slips for anything like Biden’s, but he has sometimes looked tired, lacking his usual zip, and prone to rambling. If Harris can emphasize her relative youthfulness and Trump either experiences a health episode or looks slower, this could be a deciding advantage for her with independent voters not thrilled with Trump’s age or his successor, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance.
Second reason: Her VP pick.
Trump followed the advice of his sons Eric and Don, Jr. when he went with Vance just before the Republican convention last month. If he had selected Governor Glenn Youngkin of Virginia or Governor Doug Burgum of North Dakota, he would be in a better position than he is today. Selecting Vance indicated Trump was very confident of victory. He was doubling down on a successor for himself and believed his path to victory looked clear. Vance has proven to be a troubling pick for independent voters. Harris having chosen a vice president who moderates her left-wing image has put herself in a good position to hold the blue wall that will barely give her enough votes to win the electoral college. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz was not as good a pick as Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, but he should prove durable in the Rust Belt and help Harris hold the states she must have to win.
Third reason: Media advantage.
The press wants Harris to win. Most of the mainstream reporters believe Trump is a threat to democracy and will go along with Harris’s efforts to moderate her positions, present herself in a new light, and avoid asking her tough questions about stances she has taken in the past like a ban on fracking, a radical green agenda, and her gun exchange policies which would hurt her in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the three states she must hold to eke out a win. Unless Trump becomes much better at sticking to the script and hammering Harris’ flip-flops mercilessly, she will have a free ride to the presidency. Airing his grievances about Republican Governor Brian Kemp in Georgia, disputing crowd sizes at his rallies, or whining about the J6 protestors in prison has nothing to do with defeating Harris. If he lacks discipline a winnable election will slip through his hands.
WHY HARRIS WILL LOSE
First reason: The Middle East.
Iran’s mischief in the Middle East poses problems that have tripped up previous administrations. The weakness of the Biden-Harris team regarding Iran has led to the Mullahs believing they can become more adventurous in their efforts to go after Israel. Biden-Harris’s words of support for Israel have been impressive. Unfortunately, when the Israeli government has moved to close the conflict the State Department has advised caution. They told them not to go to Rafah, to show restraint when Iran sent its first bombs, and now they counsel Israel to complete a ceasefire with Hamas before the IDF has completed its job. Recently, Harris spoke to Hamas hecklers at one of her rallies. Instead of telling them they were wrong to call for Israel’s extermination, she told them they threatened her chances of victory. Jewish voters are watching and listening. In a state like Pennsylvania, the loss of 20,000 to 40,000 Jewish votes could determine who wins the Keystone State and, in effect, the presidency.
Second reason: The economy.
A generation ago, James Carville, former president Bill Clinton’s chief campaign strategist, reminded everyone, “It’s the economy, stupid!” Under most conditions, the state of the economy determines presidential races. In recent weeks the economy appears to be slowing. Job growth has begun to shift downward, the economy’s growth has slowed, and many people are watching the stock market nervously.
If the worsening shape of things hardens over the next couple of months, Harris’s stock will also fall. Harris has no room for error. Anything resembling an oncoming recession will be hard for her to overcome.
Third reason: The border.
The controversy over Harris’s role as the border Czar aside, immigration remains a top vulnerability for the Democrats. They will try to blame Trump for discouraging a deal on the border, but Democrats have been in charge for four years. They tacked in a different direction than Trump and the disaster that befell forced a change. If that change can be marketed as something durable and not ephemeral, then Harris can put this behind her. Chances are this issue continues to help Republicans in swing states and becomes a tough hill for the Harris-Walz ticket to overcome.
CONCLUSION
Republicans are beginning to advertise relentlessly in the battleground areas. The freshness of a sitting vice president has an expiry date. The betting odds indicate Harris and Trump in a dead heat. Whatever happens inside the campaigns look for these six criteria to determine Harris’ success in her race to upend the former president.
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who now works part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, where he earned a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
