For the first time since the 2025 federal election began, a major poll has put the Conservative Party ahead. Innovative Research now has the Conservatives at 38 per cent, narrowly edging out the Liberals at 37 per cent. While this would still likely translate into a Liberal minority — thanks to the efficiency of Liberal votes in tight urban ridings — the significance shouldn’t be lost. It’s the first time in over two dozen public polls since the campaign began that the Tories have taken the lead.
So, before anyone starts writing the Conservative Party’s political obituary — a warning: don’t count Pierre Poilievre out just yet.
There’s still a long road to Election Day. Most Canadians haven’t even tuned in yet. For many voters, the campaign begins in earnest the week before Easter, when the federal leaders meet for the first debate and advance polls open. That’s the moment when the ballot question takes shape — and Poilievre, a seasoned and battle-tested campaigner, knows how to seize it.
Poilievre and his team are no strangers to political comebacks. This is a group that knows how to drive a message, respond to public sentiment, and run a disciplined ground game. Anyone who has followed Canadian politics over the last decade knows one thing: Poilievre and his team know how to fight — and they don’t give up.
Just look at what happened in the 2021 campaign. At this point in that race, polls had former Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole on track to win. He didn’t — but that fact alone should serve as a cautionary tale about reading too much into early momentum. Campaigns are marathons, not sprints, and peaking too early can be just as dangerous as falling behind.
What’s more, one of the dominant narratives so far — who can best stand up to President Donald Trump — may not be the ballot question Canadians are still thinking about come Election Day. Trump’s positions can change overnight. So too can voter priorities.
Even among voters who didn’t cast a ballot in 2021, there’s evidence of a shifting tide. According to Abacus Data, among that group — a key demographic that could determine the outcome — the Conservatives are leading the Liberals 40 per cent to 31 per cent. If turnout among these voter’s spikes, as some pollsters expect, the math changes quickly.
Yes, Poilievre’s support is often concentrated in safe Conservative ridings, particularly in the Prairies. But support is rising in key battlegrounds like Ontario and British Columbia, where Innovative Research has the Conservatives either tied or leading. That could signal the beginnings of a breakthrough — and even if other pollsters still show a Liberal edge, the gap is shrinking.
We’ve seen this movie before: polls swing wildly, pundits declare it’s over, and then the campaign takes on a life of its own. The 2025 election will be decided not by early polling averages but by who connects with voters when it matters most.
And if there’s one thing Poilievre knows how to do — it’s fight for every single vote.
Daniel Perry is the Director of Federal Affairs at the Council of Canadian Innovators, leading national advocacy and engagement efforts. With experience in consulting and roles at the Senate of Canada, Queen’s Park, and the Canadian Criminal Justice Association, Daniel has helped political leaders and clients across various sectors achieve their public policy goals. A frequent media contributor and seasoned campaigner, Daniel holds a Master of Political Management from Carleton University.
