Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Joe Biden speak at Mariinsky Palace during their meeting in Kyiv, Ukraine. Photo credit: Ukrainian Presidential Press Office/Getty Images
What a difference a year can make.
As we enter the 667th day of the Russia-Ukraine war and subsequently begin the final countdown of 2023, Western support for Ukraine in the form of military aid looks unrecognizable compared to this time last year.
After so much division following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, it felt as though the world’s foremost democracies finally found a common goal to rally around. 2022 saw billions of dollars in security assistance and lethal aid funnelled to Ukraine from NATO allies at record speed.
The US led the charge, and countries like Canada, Germany and Britain followed suit. In a show of thanks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivered an address to Congress last December to thank Americans for the support that had made it possible to hold the line against Russia.
In an impassioned speech, Zelenskyy foreshadowed that “our two nations are allies in this battle. And next year will be a turning point, I know it, the point when Ukrainian courage and American resolve must guarantee the future of our common freedom, the freedom of people who stand for their values.”
Zelenskyy was right that 2023 would prove to be a turning point. Unfortunately for the people of Ukraine fighting for their freedom, it’s not for the reasons they hoped.
While aid to Ukraine has continued to flow for the better part of this year, US lawmakers failed to get a final Ukrainian funding package through before the winter recess, due to a stalemate on funding for US border security. While debate on the aid package will resume in 2024, the spat signifies what is surely the end of the unconditional support from the US for Ukraine that has characterized much of the past two years.
The US presidential primaries kick off next month, and with that will come a slew of headlines on hot-button topics like border funding, immigration, the cost of living, and crime. While foreign policy will be a topic du jour, it is unlikely to move votes in the same way as the domestic issues that drive fundraising and engagement from the respective bases of the Republicans and Democrats.
President Biden has remained a champion of Ukraine on the world stage, but the return of Donald Trump on the campaign trail, and Republican grandstanding in Congress and the Senate are sure to put the Ukrainian conflict on the back burner.
Looking north of the border, Canadian politicians are facing their own set of challenges on the domestic front. With a lagging economy and cost of living challenges plaguing Canadian households, how and where to spend limited federal dollars is surely going to be a factor in the upcoming federal budget. Defence spending has already been impacted by budget cuts, and lagging military stockpiles are sure to put a dent in ongoing support for Ukraine.
War fatigue was bound to set in at some point, a factor which has only been exacerbated since the October 7th attack by Hamas on Israel. But as politicians look inward to try and deal with a set of domestic issues impacting the electorates that put them into power, it’s important not to lose sight of the small events that could represent a significant turning point in history.
While the delay of an aid package in Congress may seem like an insignificant event, political leaders should heed the words of Zelenskyy wisely. This isn’t just about Ukraine. This is about the fight for the freedom of people who stand for the very values that define the Western world.
Josie Sabatino is a Senior Consultant at Summa Strategies, focused on providing strategic insight and helping clients meet their objectives in an ever changing and complex political and regulatory environment. Prior to joining Summa, Josie spent nearly a decade in political communications and most recently served as the Director of Communications to the Hon. Erin O’Toole, former Leader of the Official Opposition.
