Trudeau has failed to leave his party in a competitive position to fight the next election. Pictured: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Photo Credit: Justin Trudeau/X.
Last summer, a debate fumble proved to be a death knell for the campaign prospects of U.S. President Joe Biden in his bid to secure a second presidency. What followed the disastrous performance was an aggressive campaign by Biden to try and turn the clock back and keep his presidential prospects alive.
Biden knew that he had to come out swinging, and he and his team worked the phones with caucus members and big donors to try and stave off opposition to his candidacy that came out in the hours after the debate. Though he had done fewer press conferences and media interviews than any of the last seven presidents in recent history, Biden was suddenly up at the podium and cutting national tapings with outlets like ABC and NBC News.
These efforts were ignored. Prominent Democrats announced they had lost faith in Biden’s ability to take on his Republican opponent, and big funders started to back out. In the U.S. where Super PACS spend millions of dollars in order to finance political campaigns, money talks.
The dominos fell quickly. Less than four weeks after the debate, and with just a month until the Democratic National Convention, Biden announced that he would not seek re-election.
While there may be an inclination to compare the fall of Biden to the events that played out in Canada this week after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he would be resigning once the Liberal Party has completed a leadership contest, there are more differences than similarities in these two cases.
It’s true that both Biden and Trudeau held on long past the best-before date. There has been a simmering anger growing in both the U.S. and Canada in the post-pandemic era related to economic conditions, and the cost-of-living crisis has gripped consumers on both sides of the border. Even without the debate debacle, Biden may have lost his hold on power had he survived to duke it out in a general election.
Despite trouble on the horizon, Biden left his party in a competitive position to carry the torch in the election and take on the fight against President-elect Donald Trump. Pundits have pontificated about whether there was enough runway for Vice-President Kamala Harris to properly introduce herself to the American people. Unfortunately, this take ignores the fact that the Harris campaign had the resources and campaign infrastructure in place to help get her over the finish line.
Unlike in the case of the Democrats south of the border, who have been left to do some major soul searching as inauguration day approaches, Trudeau has failed to leave his party in a competitive position to fight the next election.
Canadians are about to watch candidates duke it out in what is sure to be a divisive leadership race, ahead of what is widely anticipated to be a spring election. This means that the debate of ideas that could lead the party to put forward a refreshed policy platform in the next election is unlikely to manifest itself on such a short timeline.
Financially, the Liberals also trail the Conservatives, who managed to raise more than $20 million in the first half of 2024 alone. Given that it’s an election year, and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre finds himself sky-high in the polls, it’s easy to see this voter sentiment continuing to translate into war chest dollars.
Even though his name and face won’t be on election signs this year, Trudeau bears responsibility for the state of affairs that he is leaving behind. The Liberals are headed for a major defeat, and prospective leadership candidates should look to sit this one out if they one day hope to lead the country.
Josie Sabatino is a Senior Consultant at Summa Strategies, focused on providing strategic insight and helping clients meet their objectives in an ever changing and complex political and regulatory environment. Prior to joining Summa, Josie spent nearly a decade in political communications and most recently served as the Director of Communications to the Hon. Erin O’Toole, former Leader of the Official Opposition.
