To pull off the win, Trump needed to effectively define the ballot box question on his terms. Pictured: U.S. President-Elect Donald Trump. Photo Credit: Donald Trump Jr./X.
It’s the economy, stupid.
In the aftermath of the U.S. presidential election, it really all came down to making life more affordable at the end of the day. Americans overwhelmingly voted with their wallets, ignoring the rallying cry from the other side about how their vote was responsible for the fate of democracy.
To win, former U.S. president Donald Trump had to get two things right. The first order of business was getting the campaign’s ground game under control.
In 2020, one of the most obvious failings of the Republicans was not driving voter turnout during the early voter period. When identified supporters vote ahead of the general election, campaign teams are able to cross these individuals off of their lists and free up campaign resources to instead drive turnout with on the fence supporters.
Ensuring early voter turnout helped secure a Biden win four years ago. Based on the data that rolled in during election night, the Trump campaign over-corrected for the issue this time around, helping the three-time candidate crack the blue wall and win in important swing states like Georgia and North Carolina. Not only were the Republicans able to get their base out early to vote, but they also managed to keep voters in line despite lengthy delays to cast a ballot in some areas.
To pull off the win, Trump also needed to effectively define the ballot box question on his terms. While the Harris campaign focused their narrative on the future of democracy, protecting reproductive freedom and providing tax relief for middle- and low-income families, Trump spent his time talking about core issues like the economy, crime and safety, and immigration.
In many ways, his message was the same as in 2020. Restore America to the bygone days when people could live in safe communities and have access to good paying jobs to support their families.
To achieve this, Trump unveiled policy proposals during the campaign to lower the corporate tax rate and cut taxes on social security incomes and those who earn wages through tips.
By far the biggest headline-grabbing, economic policy is Trump’s plan to apply a global tariff on all imports to the US. His stated intention is to restore an era of ‘America First’ trade policies.
Whether or not this policy is watered down when Trump is inaugurated in January and starts signing executive orders, it is sending a strong signal to trading partners across the world that change is afoot and the old way of diplomacy will once again be thrown for a loop.
Trump now has four years in office to make good on all of his promises to the American people come true. Whether or not they emerge better off remains to be seen, but few can deny that the electoral results were decisive and that Canada’s neighbours voted for change in a big way.
Soon it will be Canada’s turn to head to the polls. While celebrity endorsements and big ad spends to the tune of billions of dollars won’t define the federal electoral period, it is anticipated that Canadians will vote with their heads, and not their hearts when it comes time to put pencil to ballot.
Josie Sabatino is a Senior Consultant at Summa Strategies, focused on providing strategic insight and helping clients meet their objectives in an ever changing and complex political and regulatory environment. Prior to joining Summa, Josie spent nearly a decade in political communications and most recently served as the Director of Communications to the Hon. Erin O’Toole, former Leader of the Official Opposition.
