Opinion

Will the evangelical vote decide the 2024 American presidential election?

Evangelicals for Harris believe there is an opening for them to attract Christian voters. Pictured: Vice President Kamala Harris. Photo Credit: Kamala Harris/X.

When former president Jimmy Carter burst upon the national political scene in 1976, the moniker “born again” had been one largely familiar to a segment of Christianity that believed each person needed to enter a personal relationship with Jesus Christ. The adherents to this faction within Christianity had always existed. The sixteenth-century Reformation had once again emphasized the importance of a transaction between the believer and the Lord. Politics in America had not divided these believers between political parties. Most presidents in the early years of the Republic acknowledged a Supreme Being in some form, many of them being Deists who accepted a God who put things in motion but did not maintain a daily oversight. He may reveal Himself in nature but not intervene in the affairs of men. 

G.K. Chesterton wrote that America was “a nation with the soul of a church.” According to Randall Balmer of Dartmouth, a historian of American religion, the most religious presidents were Jimmy Carter, George W. Bush, William McKinley, James Madison, and Abraham Lincoln. Balmer does offer an honourable mention to James Garfield, the only clergyman to serve as Commander-in-Chief. He “was lauded for his skill as a preacher, and he learned Greek—the original language of the New Testament.” What serves as a prologue will play an important role in deciding who takes the oath of office on January 20th, 2025. 

There are voting blocs in the United States reflected in the religious affiliation of its members, but the evangelical vote presents an interesting study. Former president Richard Nixon captured about eighty percent of the white evangelical vote in 1972.  Many felt duped, especially when Nixon had to resign after a cover-up for what amounted to illegal activity. When Carter ran four years later, he and President Gerald Ford split the evangelicals, Ford taking them in the north and most of the southern voters sticking with Carter. The big divide occurred in 1980 when those espousing Christian character had to exchange their preferences for a competent leader over a moral one. 

Carter’s stalled presidency demanded change. President Ronald Reagan’s triumph created a consistent evangelical voting bloc for the Republican Party that holds to the present. But the vote is not monolithic. These voters will shift to one party or the other depending on conditions in the country or how successful an administration has been. David Brody of the Christian Broadcasting Network (CBN) has followed this story for years. He suggested in an article for CBN, Could Evangelicals Give Kamala an Edge? Inside the Biblical Pitch and Push for Harris, a pattern has emerged about the breakdown of these voters. This analysis reveals who will win the election. 

According to Brody’s reporting, Vice President Kamala Harris was raised as a Baptist in San Francisco. Harris has publicly stated that her faith is important, and the Bible informs her worldview. At the National Baptist Convention two years ago, she said, “The Bible teaches us so much about what we must do to be dutiful. Understanding we have a duty to our God and to one another.” As Brody emphasizes, “Harris’ faith is rooted in what is commonly known as the ‘Social Justice Gospel.’ This human rights approach centers more on Jesus’ teaching of compassion for those less fortunate rather than a fundamentalist viewpoint.” 

Evangelicals for Harris believe there is an opening for them to attract Christian voters. The founder is Reverend Jim Ball, the former head of a Christian environmental organization. Ball would like to reach beyond the progressive voter and tap into what he sees as angst among evangelicals who do not want to vote for a convicted felon (as many Democrats see former president Donald Trump). “We’re trying to reach out to as many conservative folks as we can,” Reverend Ball says. “We try to reach out to websites that are highly visited by Trump supporters, by so-called MAGA Republicans.” When asked if he thinks there’s an opportunity to attract some of them, he responds emphatically, “We do.” 

The group has 200,000 members and plans to campaign vigorously in the swing states. Brody claims they plan to spend millions on ads targeting Christian households. The payoff would occur in the fall voting tabulations. Their analysis from PEW Research tells them that about 75 per cent of evangelicals are solid Trump voters, but 25 per cent rank Trump as average, poor, or terrible creating an opening for Harris. If Harris can get at least 20 per cent of the evangelical vote she will have a chance to win the election. In 2008 former president Barack Obama scored 26 per cent of this vote and won. President Joe Biden attracted 24 per cent of their voters in 2020 and won. In 2016 former secretary of state Hillary Clinton could only muster 16 per cent and lost. Punching above her weight in this voting bloc could position Harris for a victory in November. 

Other groups joining the effort to elect Harris will be Faithful America, Black Church PAC, and Christians for Kamala. Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey and Van Jones of CNN will encourage progressive Christians to turn out for Harris and celebrate her compassionate policies. “Her agenda is to stand for what Jesus called the least of these: the addicted, the convicted, the afflicted, the evicted.” 

Those on the Right see a different story. The Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission warned, “Unfortunately, the positions that Harris has a track record of supporting and advocating for, would lead to a devaluing of marriage, the deaths of the preborn, and a restricting of religious liberty for people of faith.” Trump has also weighed in: “How any Christian can vote for a Democrat, Christian or person of faith, how you could vote for a Democrat is crazy.” But Ball objects, saying, “If folks are wondering, how can somebody vote for one party or the other, I’d say, first of all, center it in Jesus’ lordship. And then ask who was Jesus concerned about. Jesus was concerned about the vulnerable, and which party is taking care of the vulnerable?” 

The debate goes back and forth. James Talarico, a Texas State Representative is presently in seminary and on the board of Evangelicals for Harris. He opines, “Throughout the history of Christianity, there have been progressive Christians, those who pushed this world to more fully realize the gospel of Jesus Christ. Martin Luther King Jr, Cesar Chavez, Dorothy Day, Jimmy Carter, Mr. Rogers. Progressive Christians aren’t anything new. We’ve been here all along.”  

In the coming weeks, we will learn how this battle within the Christian church turns out. Harris will not receive the majority of the Christian Right’s votes. Amassing enough of the evangelical vote, however, could allow Ms. Harris to enter the White House next January grateful for the votes of a constituency for too long thought to be pledged to whatever candidate the Republicans nominate. 

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