Both sides of the Alberta separation debate are claiming victory from the results of the three by-elections held earlier this week in Alberta. All eyes were on the provincial riding of Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, which was the only riding in Alberta which had previously elected a separation-friendly candidate back in 1982. The newly formed Republican Party of Alberta (RPA) ran Cameron Davies as their candidate in the riding. Davies has had a long history with both the Wildrose Party and the United Conservative Party (UCP), now headed by Premier Danielle Smith, but recently left the UCP to side with the Alberta separation movement.
The election result in the Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills riding saw the Republican Party gain 2,705 votes, just under 18 per cent of the total. The NDP registered somewhat more at 3,061 and the UCP candidate was the clear victor with 9,363. Another pro-separation party, the Wildrose Loyalty Coalition, garnered 189 votes. Although support of the Republican Party was not as much as they were hoping for, they still attracted a not-insignificant proportion of the vote at just under 20 per cent.
The other two by-elections were held in Edmonton ridings, which tend to be reliably left leaning because of the many provincial government employees in that area. In the Edmonton-Strathcona riding, former Calgary mayor, now Alberta NDP Leader, Naheed Nenshi won the seat with an impressive 7,952 votes as compared to the 1,314 votes received by the UCP candidate. Votes for all other parties, including the Republican Party of Alberta, were relatively insignificant. Since Nenshi has a history of melodrama and hyperbole, the fact he has finally won a seat in the legislature ensures future proceedings will be much more lively.
Election results in the other Edmonton riding, Edmonton-Ellerslie, were quite different. Although the Alberta NDP were the victors with 4,327 votes, the UCP candidate made a respectable showing with 3,239 votes. Once again, all other parties were far behind.
Recent public polling data has shown that Smith continues to enjoy an extended honeymoon among Alberta voters. This in undoubtedly in part a result of her strong positioning against the Carney Liberal government in Ottawa in defence of the energy sector and Albertans in general. She continues to walk a delicate line, however, between those Albertans who want to separate from Canada and those who would prefer to remain part of the Canadian federation.
What hasn’t been adequately discussed to date is the fact that the decision for Albertans is not that black and white. Other opinion polls have indicated that a majority of Albertans are very dissatisfied with the way they have been treated over the past decade of federal Liberal rule, and deservedly so. Canada has also suffered as a nation by not taking advantage of our immense natural resource wealth, which was deliberately sabotaged during the Trudeau years and could benefit the whole country enormously if properly developed.
While a significant proportion of Albertans – estimated between 20 to 30 per cent depending on the poll – would choose separation from Canada as their first option, others would favour more independence for Alberta while remaining within Canada. Quebec has successfully walked this line to date, establishing its own pension plan in the QPP, its own police force and things such as more provincial power over immigration policy. It appears that a majority of Albertans would welcome more autonomy without actually separating from Canada.
The opinion of Albertans may well change depending upon what the federal Liberal government does with respect to giving a green light to oil and gas pipelines and other resource development projects as Smith has asked Prime Minister Mark Carney to do. Although Carney has made many statements about promoting major infrastructure projects within Canada, his language has been vague as to exactly what these projects will entail. Carney’s recently declared alliance with the European Union (EU) is not promising, as Europe has a history of excessive regulation and climate-related policies which suppress the growth of its economy. Linking our economy with that of the EU does not bode well for Canada.
Smith has to date done a masterful job walking the fine line between the many different factions in the province with their different political leanings. How this will unfold in future will be determined largely in reaction to what the federal government chooses to prioritize for major development projects. If the Carney government decides not to favour oil and gas pipelines and other fossil fuel development, this will be a major red flag to Alberta. It will also be a big indication to all Canadians that the Carney government does not plan to promote the best interests of Canadians but rather wants to continue the ideologically driven disaster of the last decade of the Trudeau government. This is shaping up to be the major conflict within Canada for the next few years.
She has published numerous articles in journals, magazines & other media on issues such as free trade, finance, entrepreneurship & women business owners. Ms. Swift is a past President of the Empire Club of Canada, a former Director of the CD Howe Institute, the Canadian Youth Business Foundation, SOS Children’s Villages, past President of the International Small Business Congress and current Director of the Fraser Institute. She was cited in 2003 & 2012 as one of the most powerful women in Canada by the Women’s Executive Network & is a recipient of the Queen’s Silver & Gold Jubilee medals.
