The obvious question this morning, after Canada walked out of trade talks with the U.S. over the weekend is, now what? A devastating trade war is about to break out between our $2.51 trillion economy and the $32.38 trillion American behemoth.
This writer is reminded of the Biblical story of David with his little slingshot doing battle with the gigantic warrior Goliath. David won that fight but as Prime Minister Mark Carney himself remarked a year ago, we can’t win an all-out trade war with our biggest trade partner.
But it seems we had little choice.
American negotiators tried to re-open previously agreed to clauses at the 11th hour that were simply unacceptable to the Canadian team. Restrictions on our ability to make trade agreements with other countries, selective tariffs specifically designed to destroy parts of our automotive industry, limitations on how we could regulate the big U.S. tech giants who have done so much damage to our own media outlets, restrictions on the use of French – all would have been piled on top of existing tariff proposals which were punitive enough for our steel, aluminum, lumber and automotive industries.
The impact would have been devastating. University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe estimated that Trump’s threat of 50 per cent tariffs on targeted industries would have meant the loss of some 90,000 direct and indirect jobs – with 36,000 coming from Ontario alone. Other estimates pegged job losses at more than 100,000.
But there are other critical questions to ask as we assess this morning’s aftermath.
Does the Canadian public and our body politic have the fortitude to stick with this fight when it starts to hurt? And make no mistake, this is going to hurt.
Amongst all the “we will fight on the beaches” rhetoric echoing across the country, Ontario Premier Doug Ford did not sugar coat the situation.
“President Trump, he can’t be trusted, simple as that,” Ford said. “Trump is trying to inflict pain on every Canadian” and we should “inflict pain right back until he realizes that we’re his No. 1 customer in the world.”
Previous Canadian generations have survived existential crises before, from historical invasions of American soldiers, to two world wars, the Great Depression, the Cold War and most recently, the global financial crisis. Can we hang tough again?
Just as importantly, can we stay united politically? Our political playing field often looks like squabbling school children as stakeholders and premiers fight to protect narrow regional or special interests at the expense of our country’s national interests.
A longer term but equally critical question, deal or not, is can we ever trust our American neighbour again? We have long boasted about having the longest, undefended border in the world. Our people have easily intermingled for personal and business interests for decades.
Are those days now over for good? Too many people talk about hanging in until Trump is out of the White House, voluntarily or otherwise. But we can’t forget the number of people on his team, in his political support base, among the many American federal and state politicians who are part of “Team Trump.” They are not going away anytime soon.
But finally, and this is probably the most important one of all, are we prepared to pull up our national socks and become the kind of serious country, whose great potential generated the vision of so many of our founding fathers?
Over the past ten years, we have allowed so many of our foundations to atrophy – competitive tax and investment policies, expanded international markets, sound government finances, a struggling health care system, keeping up to our infrastructure needs, a functioning military, the list goes on.
We have elected a prime minister for whom this is not his first rodeo. He has held senior leadership positions during the global financial crisis here in Canada and during Brexit in the British Isles.
He and his team have made mistakes over the past few months and will no doubt do so again. But watching his steely eyed speech over the weekend – “You’re at war when you get attacked…we got attacked,” was, at a certain level, comforting while at the same time, deeply unsettling. But for now, we need to set partisanship aside.
Right now, the adrenalin is running high for all of us. We need to take a deep breath, put on our “big boy” pants, and fight to save our economy, our sovereignty and indeed, our country.
Melodramatic? Perhaps. But that does not make it any less true.
Janet Ecker is a former Ontario Finance Minister, Minister of Education, Minister of Community and Social Services and Government House Leader in the governments of Premier Mike Harris and Premier Ernie Eves. After her political career, she served as the founding CEO of the Toronto Financial Services Alliance, a public-private partnership dedicated to building Toronto region into an international financial centre. She currently sits on a number of corporate and non-profit boards, agencies and advisory committees.
Ms. Ecker received the Order of Canada for her public service contributions and was recognized as one of the “Most Influential People in the World’s Financial Centres” by Financial Centres International. She also received a “Canada’s Most Powerful Women: Top 100 Award” from the Women’s Executive Network and the Richard Ivey School of Business, among other awards. She is also one of the founders of Equal Voice, a national, multi-partisan organization working to elect more women.
