This Sunday the Saskatchewan Roughriders and Montreal Alouettes will be in Winnipeg to battle for the country’s 112th Grey Cup. Apologies must be made to the teams’ players and CFL fanatics because the real game this weekend is being contested off the field and, unfortunately regardless of the outcome, all Canadians will be affected by the political gamesmanship of Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. Smith set the deadline of the Grey Cup championship game for the federal government to respond to Alberta’s requests for support of the oil and gas industries in western Canada. So, it seems fitting to take an irreverent look this championship weekend at Canada’s “gridiron politics” to see how the federal and provincial sides arrived at this gameday.
Over the decades Canadians have witnessed classic east-west bouts, perhaps the most notorious being the Pierre Trudeau-Peter Lougheed tilt that resulted in the federal government installing the National Energy Program. Today, this Carney-Smith “high noon showdown” has turned into a national showcase match with a great deal on the line, most significantly, Canadians’ economic prosperity. The eventual outcome will undoubtedly depend on both Carney’s and Smith’s adeptness in handling the pigskin.
Carney kicked off the current contest in June with the passage of Bill C-5, the One Canadian Economy Act, that was to define and fast-track major infrastructure projects of “national interest.” Carney’s commitment piqued western Canadians’ imagination and it conjured up the vision of new pipeline corridors from Alberta, west to Prince Rupert, B.C., and east to Churchill, Manitoba. There was also mention of a “grand bargain” that would include the pipelines and new green investment into oil sands technology to “de-carbonize” the product.
Early on the Carney platoon moved the ball down the field with a no-huddle offense only to cross signals and trip themselves up in the summer when they revealed the conditions with which the federal cabinet would select a project of “national interest.” Carney fumbled in explaining the need for “a consensus” and then the offensive line piled on with B.C. Premier David Eby screaming “tanker ban,” federal Energy Minister Tim Hodgson sliding in “Indigenous ownership as a standard,” Quebec Premier François Legault wanting more for his nation of Quebec, and National Chief Cindy Woodhouse Nepinak stating she would be calling in United Nations courts to decide who would retain possession of the ball.
As it is now, investors and companies looking at starting energy infrastructure projects in Canada must 1) secure Carney cabinet approval and support to by-pass the no-new pipeline law C-69, the west coast tanker ban, and other restrictive Trudeau-era laws; 2) meet federal green goals and net zero energy transition targets; 3) receive unanimous support of the provinces; and, 4) get the approval of and give part ownership to First Nations people. Those investors and companies will also need to factor the additional expenses associated with the increased costs of the industrial carbon tax. With this onerous set of criteria, Carney has unquestionably turned the ball over.
The other series of plays Carney quarterbacked this fall involved the opening of a Major Projects Office to move the game along “at a speed not seen in generations.” Carney went to his playbook to keep this offensive drive in headlines yet, even when he made multiple completions, there were few actual yards gained on the plays. Of the five projects announced by Carney in his first set of major projects, all five projects had already been approved and some were already under construction. Disappointedly, there were no new national projects with new investment, employment, and shovels in the ground. For western Canadians, there were no concessions provided for the oil and gas sector and no new pipelines. This Thursday, Carney reran his trick plays – executing a lot of play action including a few naked bootlegs. In the end, the second set of projects failed to move the chains, proving as underwhelming as the first set: no “new” projects, rather ones that have been approved and, in some cases, already in play.
That did not stop Carney from crowing in his B.C. media scrum about his tossing in a pipeline. Technically though he needs to be called for illegal procedure as this project has been handed to an American firm, Texas-based Western LNG. It is less-than-ambitious, measuring in at a few hundred kilometers. To add insult to this showboating, Carney was prancing, elbows high, in Toronto earlier in the week stating that “pipelines are boring.” His tight-end, minister Steven Guilbeault, joined the circle dance to claim that the federal industrial carbon tax is “the backbone” of the government’s climate agenda. The environmental zealots in the Liberal caucus were having great fun with Carney’s high-stepping explanations of his continued commitment to net zero polices and the UN’s 2030 Agenda.
On Monday, Carney is to meet with the premiers where he must recap his antics which have resulted in a number of broken plays that show little gains in the national interest and an embarrassing series of sacks by U.S. President Donald Trump. He should also have to answer to the flag thrown for when he huddled with the President behind-closed-doors to secretly reopen the Keystone XL Pipeline project.
The premiers’ game analysis aside, Canadians’ take on the Liberal government’s performance to date is mixed. Quarterback Carney is a one-man show, obviously not wanting to throw or hand off the ball to teammates. The Liberals have an offense built around QB trick plays, fooling no foreign investors or industry leaders (or western Canadians). The fact is Carney is proving to be no Sonny Wade or Anthony Carvillo. If there were one freezeframe of the prime minister in action it would be him scrambling with the ball held loosely in front of him, grinning and taunting the opposing defensive ends, angling himself to the sidelines, six yards short of the 10-yard marker.
On the other side of the ball, the western squad led by quarterback Smith is approaching the game as a grudge match that may ultimately wipe clear the memory of Pierre Trudeau and his son’s vengeful treatment of Albertans. Smith’s opening plays have consisted of a series of short cross-over completions. She has stated, “Canadians need to understand just how damaged Alberta is by the fact that we didn’t get pipelines built. If we had built Northern Gateway, if we built Keystone and Energy East we would have 2.5 million barrels more per day of production, which is $55 billion a year worth of GDP value, which is worth $17 billion to my government alone and about an equal amount to the federal government.”
Smith appears surefooted, falling back into the pocket and airing out the ball. She has commanded a good field position with her demands for guaranteed western port access for Alberta energy and resources, a repeal of federal laws like C-69 and the emissions cap, and the fostering of a business environment that could support the doubling of Alberta’s production of oil and gas. She called a few remarkable quarterback draw plays, which have been caught on video. Here she states, “The status quo relationship with Canada cannot continue,” and here she romps, “Canada has become economically weak and vulnerable to the whims of our largest export market…and Ottawa continues to dither.”
Westerners’ gameplan is transparent as Smith has taken every opportunity to fire clotheslines that demand an end to “Ottawa’s nine bad laws.” Canada’s leading oil and gas sector CEOs also blitzed the prime minister with an open letter that called for the government to “Build Canada Now” and attract new investment by simplifying regulations, dropping the cap on emissions, and committing to a certain timeline for project approvals. Still, these combined efforts resulted in no scores – westerners have been turned back with a few blocked field goals, a few turnovers on downs.
There were also a number of broken plays when it appeared the western cause was gaining momentum and were about to enter the red zone. Last fall both the Conference Board of Canada and Deloitte described the tremendous loss to the Canadian economy caused by the Liberals emission cap and the curtail of oil and gas production – a loss equivalent to 1.0 per cent of Canada’s GDP and billions in lost tax revenue. Opinion polls are now consistently showing the majority of Canadians recognize an immediate need for new pipeline projects and the increase in oil and gas production. Smith even joined with two colleagues, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe and Ontario Premier Doug Ford, to announce a new feasibility study for a west-east energy corridor that would include new pipelines (ironically, the only truly national infrastructure project to be presented in 2025 was done so by the premiers).
In early October, when there were still no companies willing to step forward to invest in a Canadian pipeline, Smith emptied the backfield and took the ball into her own hands to scamper forward. She declared the Alberta government is committing $14 million towards the early regulatory work for a west coast oil pipeline, “What stands before us right now is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to unlock our wealth and resources and become a world-leading energy superpower.” This attempt to punch the ball over the goal line was met with silence from Ottawa and an “un-Canadian” faceguard tug by Eby, “Premier Smith continues to advance a project that is entirely taxpayer funded, has no private sector proponent.”
On the news that Eby and Carney were high fiving one another in Terrance, B.C. on Thursday, Smith was tight-lipped, releasing a written statement that Alberta was working on a deal with Ottawa that is to include “approval of a bitumen pipeline to Asian markets.” No doubt Smith is aware of the game clock and realizes reviews on her performance are mixed. She has proved competent in moving the ball but has not converted on opportunities. Critics claim she needs to look for her wide receivers more, throw a long bomb for the end zone and open the game up. If there was a single freezeframe of Smith in action it would be her stepping up to receive the snap of the ball, scanning the defensive line – in this picture there is promise as Smith appears prepared to call an audible. Still, there’s doubt as she has failed yet to channel her inner Tom Wilkinson or Warren Moon.
As for a game prediction this weekend, given the strong, steady winds from the south, Carney-Smith is likely to be a low scoring affair that will eventually be won on field position and strength of the defense. Carney appears willing to scratch for a lead and then run out the clock to an election. Smith will be looking to continue to move the ball and complete a touchdown toss that will excite her teammates, the fans – and investors back to a western pipeline project.
Canadians might very well enjoy this gridiron political match-up if it was not for the country’s prosperity resting on the bounce of that oversized, uniquely Canadian pigskin.
Chris George is an advocate, government relations advisor, and writer/copy editor. As president of a public relations firm established in 1994, Chris provides discreet counsel, tactical advice and management skills to CEOs/Presidents, Boards of Directors and senior executive teams in executing public and government relations campaigns and managing issues. Prior to this PR/GR career, Chris spent seven years on Parliament Hill on staffs of Cabinet Ministers and MPs. He has served in senior campaign positions for electoral and advocacy campaigns at every level of government. Today, Chris resides in Almonte, Ontario where he and his wife manage www.cgacommunications.com. Contact Chris at chrisg.george@gmail.com.
