Mayor Jim Diodati, MP Tony Baldinelli, George Lepp, former MP and cabinet minister Rob Nicholson, NOTL Deputy Mayor Erwin Wiens, city councillor Mona Patel, Chuck Mcshane, former MPP Bart Maves, and Ally Nieuwesteeg joined Niagara Falls Ontario PC candidate Ruth-Ann Nieuwesteeg at a “catch the blue wave” rally attended by 200 people last week. Photo Supplied.
Last Monday night the Niagara Falls Ontario PC Association held a “Catch the Blue Wave” event. Over 200 supporters of Niagara Falls candidate Ruth-Ann Nieuwesteeg attended at the Watermark restaurant lit up in blue, as was the Skylon Tower as her backdrop. The lights on the falls themselves occasionally matched up with the evenings theme.
With just over two weeks to go before election day, Feb. 27, the theme of the night was not lost on onlookers. Most polls across the province continue to show Doug Ford and the Ontario PC party headed toward a third consecutive majority.
The thrust of the affair was to get Niagara region voters onside with the blue wave to elect more local MPPs from within the eventual governing party. As of Saturday Feb. 15, online polling aggregator 338 had the Ontario PC Party at 45 per cent, sporting an 18 per cent lead over the second place Ontario Liberal Party, at 27 per cent, followed by the third place and falling NDP, at 18 per cent.
The aggregator uses polls completed by Mainstreet, Nanos, Ipsos, Leger, Pallas, Liaison, Relay and others and maintains a running average to ensure an accurate picture is being painted by all of the polling companies. 338 estimates that if an election were held today the Ontario PCs would win 96 seats to the Liberals’ 12 and the NDP’s 14. This result would be a 13-seat gain by the PCs over their 2022 result, a three-seat gain by the Liberals and a whopping 21-seat decline by the NDP.
To get riding-by-riding estimated results, 338 has devised formulas they apply to the province and region wide polling. They put proportional polling results, historic results, demographics, the power of a star candidate and many other variables into their model to derive what have been historically accurate estimates of standings in each riding.
As of Feb. 15, their math suggests, not surprisingly, that Sam Oosterhoff is safe again in Niagara West with a 29 per cent lead over the OLP candidate. But what of the other three Niagara ridings with NDP incumbents?
Niagara Centre has had an NDP MPP going back to 1975 when Mel Swart won the riding away from PC member Ellis Morningstar. 338 indicates that current MPP Jeff Burch is in danger of losing this riding to Ontario PC candidate, current Port Colborne Mayor Bill Steele. Steele purportedly would garner 42 per cent of the vote if the election were held today to Burch’s 33 per cent and the Liberals’ 17 per cent.
In St. Catharines, Ontario PC candidate Sal Sorrento, a long-time city and now regional councillor, appears to have a six-point lead over NDP incumbent Jennie Stevens and a 17 per cent lead over St. Catharines city councillor and Liberal candidate Robin McPherson.
And what of Nieuwesteeg in Niagara Falls, urging people to catch this ‘blue wave’ at her event? 338 projects that even Nieuwesteeg, the current Niagara Falls city councillor and well-known long-time owner-operator of Patterson Funeral Home, has a shot to unseat long-time NDP MPP Wayne Gates. Though it appears a dead heat with Nieuwesteeg at 41 per cent, Gates at 41 per cent and the Liberal candidate at just 12 per cent. The lack of a strong Liberal is clearly helping Gates in this riding.
“We feel the province-wide momentum, but there is lots to do and a long way to go,” said former PC MPP Bart Maves after the event. “Our riding so badly needs an MPP who sits beside the Premier at Queen’s Park, working with him for the people of Niagara Falls, Niagara-on-the-Lake and Fort Erie rather than an MPP who sits across from the governing party barking insults.”
“This dysfunctionality is what prompted the Premier to once call Mayor Diodati a ‘two-hatter’ – the Mayor and the MPP!”
To all who attended, the blue wave evening was a great success.
“I know Ruth-Ann was honoured to be joined by so many federal and provincial party stalwarts tonight, by the mayor and by her council colleagues and by so many of her friends, family and newcomers to the fold – their support is critical to success and very much appreciated,” concluded George Lepp, a former PC candidate.
