A recent poll of Alberta voters has found that Premier Danielle Smith continues to enjoy majority support among Albertans. Calgary pollster Janet Brown found that after about two years in office, Smith enjoys a significant 52 per cent support. Brown noted that she hadn’t seen an Albertan Premier enjoy this level of ongoing support since Ralph Klein was in office. The poll also showed that if a vote were held today, Smith’s United Conservative Party (UCP) would win a resounding majority government while the opposition NDP would lose a significant number of seats.
In the last election in 2023, the UCP won with 52.6 per cent of the total vote, so their support has changed very little at roughly the mid-point of Smith’s mandate. Albertans’ positive views of Smith have increased recently, while the NDP leader, Naheed Nenshi, is not especially positively viewed. When Smith first became Premier in late 2022, prior to the provincial election, over 50 per cent of Albertans did not have a positive view of her, so that impression has really turned around.
Another interesting result of this survey was that although a majority of Albertans were disappointed with the federal election result that re-elected the Liberals, albeit with a minority government, a strong majority still believed Alberta would be better off remaining part of Canada. The poll showed that when asked whether the respondent believed Alberta would benefit from separating from Canada, 30 per cent agreed versus 67 per cent that disagreed. This result has been pretty consistent in previous polls. However, when asked in this most recent poll if they feel more attachment to Alberta or Canada, 34 per cent chose Alberta, an increase from 20 per cent a few years ago. A majority of Albertans said they were not prepared to give up on Canada yet but were dismayed that the federal Liberals had been re-elected.
The poll also found that those who were most stressed by the Canada-U.S. trade situation also expressed a much higher attachment to Canada, while those who weren’t as bothered by President Donald Trump’s tariff threats were more attached to Alberta than Canada.
Smith has spoken about many possibilities to give Alberta more autonomy without actual separation from Canada, which is the nuclear option. She, along with Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe in some cases, has strenuously defended provincial jurisdiction in the courts against a number of intrusions from the Trudeau government. The fact Smith has notched a number of legal wins in federal courts and the Supreme Court, should give the federal Liberals pause before they attempt to impinge on provincial jurisdiction in future.
So far, Prime Minister Mark Carney has not shown his cards as to how he might approach the issues that are clearly under provincial jurisdiction in the Canadian Constitution. He has, however, talked about such things as a nationwide electricity grid he would favour, despite the fact that the Constitution clearly designates electricity as within provincial purview. All provinces should be appreciative of the fact that Alberta and Saskatchewan have been at the forefront of defending provincial jurisdiction in the face of a federal government that has been very aggressive about invading provincial territory.
Smith is walking a very fine line between a significant proportion of Alberta’s population that has expressed its support for separation and those who do not support such an outcome. The fact she enjoys significant support overall suggests she is succeeding in walking that line, although it is a volatile situation that could change at any time.
On a national basis, Smith is showing a great deal of courage in defending the interests of Alberta while some other federal and provincial Canadian politicians have called her a traitor and not a team player for Canada. Anyone who understands the realities of Canadian economics will know that when Alberta succeeds, so does the rest of Canada as Alberta punches well above its weight in contributing to the national economy. Unfortunately, it seems that many Canadians outside of Alberta are unaware of this fact. It’s encouraging that Smith continues to attract support within Alberta, as she is the type of honest and courageous politician Canada sorely needs during these challenging times.
She has published numerous articles in journals, magazines & other media on issues such as free trade, finance, entrepreneurship & women business owners. Ms. Swift is a past President of the Empire Club of Canada, a former Director of the CD Howe Institute, the Canadian Youth Business Foundation, SOS Children’s Villages, past President of the International Small Business Congress and current Director of the Fraser Institute. She was cited in 2003 & 2012 as one of the most powerful women in Canada by the Women’s Executive Network & is a recipient of the Queen’s Silver & Gold Jubilee medals.
