British Columbia Premier David Eby took a massive gamble last week in calling a snap election just two years into a majority mandate.
Eby, who has faced controversies over land claims, massive deficits, tax hikes, shuttered hospitals, and more, is hoping that voters will overlook his record and will vote for the NDP as a firewall against U.S. President Donald Trump.
Eby called the snap election hoping to take advantage of disarray on the right, with the BC Conservatives having largely fallen apart over the past few months under the leadership of former leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay.
But in the two days leading up to the campaign, the Conservatives got their act together. They appointed a new leader, the vast majority of departed MLAs have returned to caucus, and the centre-right appears largely united to take on Eby and the NDP.
Did Eby just make a major mistake? Only time will tell. But one thing is clear: this election campaign certainly won’t be a walk in the park for the B.C. premier.
As the campaign kicked off, Eby tried to frame it as a referendum on who can handle Trump, while the Conservatives are framing the campaign as a referendum on Eby’s record. Eby is surely hoping that voters will focus on the Trump factor. That worked for Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Prime Minister Mark Carney last year, but the Quebec election is showing that incumbent governments may no longer be benefitting from the so-called Trump effect.
Here’s the other thing: when Ford called an early snap election, his Tories were leading by roughly 15 points in the polls. Early polls show that Eby is leading by just five, if that. That’s a big gamble to take, as a swing of a few points could easily change the outcome from an NDP re-election to a Conservative win for the first time in more than a century.
A crucial factor in the campaign will be the role of the BC Conservatives’ new leader, Lorne Doerkson. The public will have to get to know him, having been a relatively unknown quantity in the province until just days ago. But based on Doerkson’s first press conference, he appears ready to take on the challenge.
One question mark was Doerkson’s interim status. Of course, because Doerkson was only chosen by caucus, and not party members, the NDP were already alleging that the affable Doerkson could easily be replaced by the party after the election by someone else. But the Conservative Party put that issue to rest last week, with the party’s board saying that party rules would be changed so that Doerkson would stay on as party leader and become premier should he lead his party to a win on Oct. 24.
While many across B.C. are angry at Eby for calling a snap election just halfway through his majority mandate, the election will surely soon turn to the issues. And if the Conservatives are able to talk about rampant drugs, crime, homelessness, high taxes, massive deficits, and more, they should be in good shape to gain on Eby’s NDP. That’s precisely why Eby wants the whole election to be all about Trump.
Can Eby win this thing? Of course he can. Doerkson may not prove to be up to the challenge, the public may forgive him for the early election call, and he does lead in the polls as of now. But this is not the slam dunk Eby thought he was going to be able to take just day before the election was called, when Findlay was still leading the Conservatives and nearly half the caucus had either left or been thrown out.
This election will be one to watch and surely one for the history books. If you’re a political junkie, keep your eyes on B.C. for the next month!
Jay Goldberg is the Canadian Affairs Manager at the Consumer Choice Center. He previously served as the Ontario Director at the Canadian Taxpayers Federation and a policy fellow at the Munk School of Public Policy and Global Affairs. Jay holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Toronto.
