Lessons from the BC election – Lorne of the Manor

With the polls closed and the first Conservative government in power in British Columbia in about a hundred years, there are some lessons to learn. The main one may be an old one, dating back to a foundational trial advocacy rule for lawyers during cross-examination. Don’t ask a question you don’t know the answer to. NDP Premier Eby decided to go to the British Columbian people and ask for a new mandate. He didn’t really know what their answer would be; he merely assumed they would renew his lease on power, grant him a new majority, and run from a badly divided and leaderless Conservative Party. Shame on him for assuming voters’ intentions, and he owns the worst and most selfish decision in Canadian political history. Ranking alongside David Peterson’s efforts to secure another term of office in Ontario in 1990, a full year before he needed to, Eby’s election call serves as a cautionary tale for future leaders who think they can improve their personal positions at the cost and inconvenience of the voter. Eby left two full years of NDP government on the table to pursue what he thought was a slam-dunk majority. Instead, he had to announce his resignation Saturday evening and hand the party over to an interim leader. Eby will find work, and his life will remain full and busy, but he could have been the premier until at least 2028, and his party would have had a large say in numerous issues that will now fall under the purview of Lorne Doerkson’s Conservatives. 

How did it happen?

Over the course of 5 months, the BC Conservatives elected a new leader; divided themselves over Kerry-Lynne Findlay’s leadership, rose in the polls only to fall behind the governing NDP when it looked like they couldn’t govern themselves, never mind the province; were seen as so vulnerable that Premier Eby thought he could gamble his majority and win another term; selected a new and unknown leader, Lorne Doerkson and then pulled off an amazing comeback to win at press time, 64 of the province’s 93 seats, a stunning and massive majority given the odds. These present the bare-bones facts, but the twists and turns of the campaign deserve further examination and will serve as a lesson on hubris in political textbooks for dummies for decades to come. 

Where Did It Happen?

Political junkies will tell you they saw the result coming because of how the vote was heading in the Surrey and Richmond sections of the province. Surrey and Richmond are two fast-growing Metro Vancouver cities that hold 14 individual ridings, 10 in Surrey and 4 in Richmond. The NDP had historically held these seats, but in Saturday’s election the BC Conservatives won all 10 seats in Surrey and all 4 in Richmond, flipping the old NDP strongholds to a solid blue. Beyond this complete turnaround, the Conservatives performed strongly in the Tri-Cities and Lower Mainland suburbs, flipping seats such as West Vancouver-Capilano and Delta North. By sweeping Vancouver Island, they infiltrated ‌Green Party strongholds as well. They even won seats in Vancouver Proper, taking Vancouver-Fraserview and Vancouver-Quilchena despite the NDP holding on to most seats in that area. Add this to their massive victories in the Southern Interior & Okanagan, and in Rural & Northern B.C., and it becomes obvious how they consolidated their majority. 

Why Did It Happen?

On CTV’s Question Period Sunday morning, a former NDP federal and provincial member of parliament described the situation as a cynical act by the premier and one the party could not overcome. He called the appointment of Lorne Doerkson as the Conservative leader a return to normalcy for a party with a reputation for some fringe characters. Kory Teneycke on the same show called Doerkson’s elevation to leader the “triumph of normalcy.”  Elaborating, Teneckye, who had managed Caroline Elliot’s bid to become leader that just fell short, said, “The decision to put in a very normal small-town gentleman as leader of the party, somebody who is not hyper partisan, somebody who is viewed as a moderate within the party made all the difference.” Finally, Scott Reid, another former political maven, who once served as a political advisor to former Prime Minister Paul Martin, suggested the NDP made two miscalculations. The first was about trying to say the election was about Donald Trump and the threat he posed to BC’s economy. No one bought it and saw it as sheer political opportunism. Calling a snap election presented the second problem. The party had to be sure they could make this work, but they never got on track. Cabinet members they expected to run decided to retire, and few voters accepted Eby’s justification for calling an unnecessary election during the municipal elections. 

What To Look For

Doerkson must now demonstrate that he can keep his party in line and run a government. It won’t be easy to roll back NDP promises and cut taxes, two of the Conservatives’ greatest claims. They have promised to increase the personal exemption from $13,216 to $32,000. That would be an immediate $1,000 tax cut for every individual and $2,000 for couples. They have also targeted the removal of the 10% PST on beer, wine, and spirits for as long as the Canada-US trade war lasts, and the removal of the PST on specific business software, machinery, and equipment. They also want to scrap BC’s industrial carbon tax to improve the province’s international competitiveness. Doerkson will also have to guide legislation that will “supercharge” LNG (Liquid Natural Gas) and resource development while trying to reduce bureaucratic red tape. The new premier also wants to repeal DRIPA (Declaration of Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act) to end court battles and instead pursue a path to “economic reconciliation” and partnerships with First Nations peoples. The Conservative government will also attempt to freeze public-sector hiring; scrap the Massey Tunnel project and replace it with a bridge between Delta and Richmond; extend the SkyTrain line into Surrey; and end no-fault insurance, thereby restoring consumer choice and the right of victims of serious accidents to sue for damages.  

If a government in Canada, either provincial or federal, decides to call an early election, it had better remember the Eby disaster. Governments should have a plan beyond opportunism. Eby saw an opening and moved. He turned out to be radically misinformed, making a miscalculation that cost him his job and his party the government. Can Doerkson manage the challenges before him? Voters handed him the responsibility because they lost trust in Eby and the NDP. No government should presume that its citizens will support it under any circumstances, regardless of how disorganized the opposition appears. David Eby forgot that voters hold the cards. They decide when politicians come and go. They control the signal lights. On Saturday, BC voters handed the keys to Mr Duerkson, the new Lorne of the Manor.