Local mayoral races come down to the wire

The municipal races for mayor, council, and school trustee seats are coming down to the wire. With less than two weeks left until voting day, some contests appear to be decided, others are tight, and the remainder are foregone conclusions. 

LARGER CENTRES

In the larger centres of St. Catharines, Niagara Falls, and Welland, the mayoral race fits the bill. Mayor Mat Siscoe in the Garden Centre enjoys a lead at the stretch. The Polymarket (the world’s largest decentralized prediction platform launched in 2020 by Shayne Coplan) gives Siscoe a dominant 90 per cent chance of re-election. His opponents may not agree, but Siscoe returning to lead St. Catharines’ council seems inevitable. In Niagara Falls, Lori Lococo, backed by powerful unions and name recognition, has waged a spirited campaign to unseat longtime mayor Jim Diodati. Despite the large number of signs supporting her candidacy displayed around the city, Diodati is also the clear favourite on Polymarket, with an 90 per cent chance of winning. Having secured firm support from the Italian and Serbian communities in the Honeymoon City, the ubiquitous mayor should sail to victory. 

Welland could be different. Although not on the Polymarket trading platform, the race will probably be decided among Pat Chiocchio, Graham Speck, and April Jeffs. Current Ward Five Councillor Speck and Regional Councillor Chiocchio are leveraging their names to forge ahead but Jeffs has a favourable reputation and notable recognition in local Conservative politics. The key factor to watch is whether Speck and Jeffs split the centre-right voters. If neither candidate can consolidate the conservative vote, Chiocchio will have a pathway to victory. Unofficial community polls track a tight race, and the difference between winning and losing could come down to turnout or who performs best in the public forums already held and broadcast on the YourTV Niagara YouTube Channel. 

MEDIUM-SIZED TOWNS AND CITIES

In Niagara’s medium-sized communities, knowing who leads, who can make inroads, and who may surprise comes down to factors favouring incumbents. Because local candidates aren’t affiliated with a party, they have to raise their own money, build their own teams, and develop a strategy to get their message to voters. In Fort Erie, Mayor Wayne Redekop stands by his record, but also has the advantage of incumbency. A local politician since 1991 and mayor for most of the past generation, he has a network of supporters that flows into the town, using tested methods to connect with voters and overwhelm opponents. Anyone who has been in Fort Erie during the campaign knows that Redekop has not taken his opponent, Regional Councillor Tom Insinna, lightly. Insinna can draw from the Italian community and has a reputable team behind him. On-the-ground interactions with voters tell this author that general frustration with ‘politics as usual’ could give the challenger some grist for the mill. However, the sign war would indicate that Redekop remains the favourite. How close the race is remains a mystery. Will Insinna be able to close the gap? Time will tell.

In Port Colborne, incumbent Bill Steele appears to be coasting to victory. His opponents, including Larry Rosnuk, who is running for mayor for the third time, want to focus on healthcare access. While not trying to run a protest campaign, many of Rosnuk’s criticisms are not easily solved and entail working with different levels of government. Every community would like its own hospital or urgent care centre, but the costs don’t appear in budgets that already have citizens up in arms over tax hikes. Perhaps Rosnuk or another candidate could sow doubt about Steele’s leadership, but that would need to happen quickly. The mayor will win unless unforeseen developments arise. 

Grimsby’s mayoral race was destined to be tight, but without polling, the outcome is unknown. Mayor Jeff Jordan seeks a third term built on a record he happily defends, especially his success in extending GO service to the Peach City. His major opponents, Michelle Seaborn and Veronica Charrois, both enjoy name recognition, can point to their own accomplishments, and are pressing their cases. One debate had to be cancelled because only one candidate (Veronica Charrois) would confirm her attendance at the YourTV production, though Jordan later agreed to participate. All the candidates attended a Chamber of Commerce forum to answer questions on Oct. 4, but whether this will provide momentum for any of them remains to be seen. As the incumbent, Jordan will welcome his opposition splitting the vote, but it does not guarantee him victory. This race bears watching and could be one of the closer ones on election night. 

Pelham, the last medium-sized municipality, has a competitive and heated mayoral race. At one debate, Mayor Marvin Junkin was criticized for missing regional council meetings, forcing him to explain his son’s death. His opponent, Frank Adamson, who also ran against Junkin in 2022, later apologized. These small matters can carry more weight than expected. If Junkin appears sympathetic, a slight margin of victory may decide the race. How the other two candidates (Wally Braun and Randy Gananathan) perform will also affect the outcome. Not everyone is a winner, but there can be spoilers. Junkin will be favoured, yet the race remains undecided.  

SMALLER COMMUNITIES

The remaining five municipalities in Niagara are Thorold, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Lincoln, West Lincoln, and Wainfleet. These smaller communities also have interesting races, though Mayor Cheryl Ganaan of West Lincoln has been acclaimed for a second term. The Polymarkets tracking of the race in NOTL shows Councillor Erwin Weins as the favourite with a 56 per cent chance of victory (Oct. 11), with Andrea Kaiser holding strong at 38 per cent and Vaughn Goettler still at 10 per cent to claim the mayoralty. Weins’ pricing rests on his title of Deputy Lord Mayor and on topping the polls in the 2022 election. Kaiser and especially Goettler are seen as holding development views that diverge from Weins’, and this could attract those more interested in slowing or even placing a moratorium on building in the historic town known for arts and history. The race remains active and far from decided. Thorold, nestled in the centre of Niagara, appears poised to elect Tim Whalen as its next mayor, although former mayor Henry D’Angela is waging a strong campaign. Political observers close to the campaign believe Whalen holds the inside track and will win. The voters will ultimately choose their next mayor, not prognosticators. Regardless, insiders continue to believe Whalen will come out on top. 

In Lincoln, three-term mayor Sandra Easton’s retirement has created a competitive opening for one of three contenders. Greg Reimer has the inside track, having most recently served as Deputy Mayor. However, Adam Thomas Russell and Cheryl Scott Keddy are running hard campaigns and had the Oct. 13 candidates’ night forum to press their message. This one could come down to who performs best on their feet answering live questions and who can get out the vote. Easton has not announced an endorsement of the hopefuls and will probably not do so before the vote, instead choosing to “create space for renewed energy and leadership.” Wainfleet presents the hottest race, and one that remains unpredictable. Mayor Brian Grant and former mayor Kevin Gibson battled to a virtual tie in 2022 (41 per cent each), with Grant winning by a mere 12 votes. They maintain small-town civility in debates, but the rivalry is intense, with each side working feverishly to win this tight contest. It may not be as close as last time, but the victor will have earned his title when the final vote tally comes in. 

SUMMARY

The 2026 municipal elections in Niagara are historically significant. For some communities, especially the smaller towns and cities, it could be the last independent election their municipality holds. Amalgamation remains a live issue. The premier will look to push the region’s mayors to downsize from twelve to six, four, three, maybe one large city. It won’t be hard to figure out who will get swallowed up if population rules. Already, mayors of larger cities have indicated which communities they want to annex. When this kind of effort picks up speed, stopping it becomes a real challenge. Smaller communities will need effective, articulate advocates in as crucial a process as this. As important as these elections will be, the aftermath will be more determinative. By 2030, assuming the premier’s hopes are fulfilled, Niagara will see fewer politicians and fewer small towns. That gives our readers plenty of reason to get out and vote. Register if you need to, find your polling place, and exercise your democratic right.