Ontario Premier Doug Ford is expected to trigger an early election next week. Pictured: Niagara West MPP Sam Oosterhoff. Photo Credit: Sam Oosterhoff/X.
The next Ontario election is not scheduled to take place until June 4, 2026. With that being said, Premier Doug Ford has been signaling that he soon plans to dissolve his majority government and plunge the province into a winter vote.
Ford is arguing that he requires a new mandate so that he can approach trade and tariff negotiations with United States President Donald Trump from a place of maximum strength. The Ontario Premier has also said that Trump’s planned tariffs would create an enormous economic crisis for the province, and that voters must be given an opportunity to approve the potential utilization of economic stimulus packages similar to those crafted during the pandemic.
Speculation is mounting that Ford may drop the writ as soon as next week. Therefore, the candidates in Niagara’s four electoral riding associations are organizing for what appears to be an imminent campaign.
In the Niagara West riding, incumbent Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario (PCPO) Sam Oosterhoff is running for re-election. His challengers will include the Ontario Liberal Party (OLP) candidate Shauna Boyle, New Democratic Party (NDP) nominee Dave Augustyn, and Green Party of Ontario (GPO) candidate Mark Harrison. 338Canada, an election projection website, currently has the PCPO holding a commanding lead of 45 per cent popular support, followed by the OLP in a distant second at 24 per cent, the NDP at 18 per cent, the GPO at eight per cent, and the Ontario Party (ONP) at three per cent.
In Niagara Falls, NDP incumbent Wayne Gates will also be asking residents to send him back to Queen’s Park for another term. The PCPO, OLP, and GPO have not yet nominated their candidates. While 338Canada favours the NDP, with a lead at 43 per cent in popular support, polls would indicate that the PCPO remain in striking distance, at 38 per cent. The OLP are a distant third, garnering only 13 per cent at this juncture, while the GPO holds four per cent.
Niagara Centre NDP incumbent Jeff Burch is running for a third term as MPP. Burch is projected to face a competitive challenger in PCPO candidate Bill Steele, who currently serves as the Mayor of Port Colborne. The OLP and GPO are yet to nominate candidates for this riding. 338Canada has the PCPO leading the NDP 38 per cent to 34 per cent, while the OLP holds 19 per cent and the GPO occupies six per cent.
In the St. Catharines riding, NDP incumbent Jennie Stevens will also be seeking a third term. Stevens will be opposed by OLP candidate Robin McPherson, a Ward 4 St. Catharines City Councillor. 338Canada polling shows the NDP and PCPO neck and neck, each occupying 34 per cent of the vote. The OLP is in third place with 23 per cent and the GPO currently holds five per. cent.
If the election were held today, 338Canada projected that the PCPO would win 81 seats, 18 seats more than the required 63 seats to form a majority government, delivering Ford with a third consecutive majority mandate.
The 338 Canada website was designed by Philippe J. Fournier, a professor of physics and astrophysics at Cégep de Saint-Laurent College in Montreal, Quebec. As noted on their website, the 338Canada project utilizes a wide range of data to make their predictions including information from previous elections, demographics, as well as statistics from a variety of opinion polling sources. Those interested in learning more can track the provincial polls, as well as local races, at 338Canada.

Nick Redekop completed his Honours Bachelor of Arts Degree in Labour Studies at Brock University. He has previously served in municipal and federal politics. In his free time, Nick enjoys following sports, taking part in outdoor activities, and reading biographies. Nick resides in Niagara Falls