“Alberta has an Alberta problem,” according to the editors of the Globe and Mail. One can expect that the lead editorial this week in Canada’s national newspaper was written for the Prime Minister’s Office; the editors earned their keep and can expect their next government subsidy cheque deposited without delay.
In their condescending manner, the Globe and Mail editors challenged the sincerity of Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s video message to Albertans in which she announced the Alberta Next Panel. They accused her of “trying to manage her party’s and her province’s separatist sentiment by saying that she thinks it deserves to be heard, even as she says she doesn’t support it.” The editors continued by dissing a recently released report by an Albertan independence movement, referring to it as “pie in the sky.” They offered their Laurentian political perspective that the premier is “attempting to bottle lightning” and she is likely to get burned. The editors concluded with what they believed would be a mic drop: “Alberta’s problem is not in Ottawa – it’s in Alberta. If Ms. Smith aims to strengthen her province, she should extend her hand to the federal government, not clench it in a fist.”
Notwithstanding the editors’ slights, the premier’s latest video “Alberta Next” is an explicit statement of the current position of the Smith government and its intention to set in place the conditions that will benefit the people of Alberta and ensure the province’s economic growth. Smith states, “The status quo relationship with Canada cannot continue. It is time for Alberta to take a stand.”
Just this week the latest acts in the tragicomedy between the country’s political leaders were played out at the Calgary Stampede. The western spectacle afforded Prime Minister Mark Carney and Smith opportunities to restate expectations for their working relationship. Carney stated it will be “highly, highly likely” that an oil pipeline will make his list of major projects of national interest. He was bullish in saying the federal government will support Alberta’s plan to establish a west coast port for its oil and gas products, “We’re not going to have a project that gets oil to tidewater and it stays there… What C-5 creates is a lot of flexibility, and it creates a lot of flexibility for nation-building projects. And when I say projects, there’s an S at the end.”
Smith took every opportunity to raise the need for Ottawa to cancel the “anti-Alberta” laws enacted in the past decade by the Trudeau Liberals. She claims the “nine bad laws” remain an impediment to companies looking to invest in Canada, companies that would rather not bank on being hand-picked by the federal government to be fast-tracked. In a CBC News interview, the premier shared that there has been “not a lot of enthusiasm” among pipeline companies, who are expressing concerns about the impending 2026 oil and gas emissions cap, the west coast ban on oil tankers, as well as federal laws that censor companies from making public their emissions reductions efforts. The premier stated, “We need to address those bad laws in order to create an environment where there’s a lot more investor confidence, and if those two things can happen together, I also share the prime minister’s enthusiasm.”
Smith has often referred to the success in having new investment in Canada’s oil and gas industry as “a chicken and egg scenario” dependent on the federal government repealing or amending their environmental laws and regulations. Carney has indicated he is not about to alter any federal environmental laws but rather he will use the hammer of his C-5 One Canadian Economy Act to ensure there will be expeditious approval for major infrastructure projects: “I am confident that my government will do everything we can so that those projects can be built. The private sector is going to drive it… We’ve got legislation, but we’ve also got the people in place at the federal level who can get things done.”
Such is the current theatrics of the prime minister and the premier and it has produced an anxiousness over what plot twists may occur through the summer and into the fall parliamentary session. Over the years, Canadians have witnessed bouts of classic east-west standoffs, perhaps the most notorious being the Pierre Trudeau-Peter Lougheed feud that resulted in the federal government installing the National Energy Program. Today, this Carney-Smith “high noon showdown” is a national drama with a great deal at stake regarding the functionality of federal-provincial relations and, most significantly, the country’s immediate and future economic prosperity.
Economically, the Albertan energy industries are, literally, the fuel of Canadians’ prosperity. The Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) just published its annual report which states, “Alberta’s oil industry experienced notable growth due to pipeline capacity improvements and favourable oil prices.” The AER data shows that the province remains the largest natural gas and oil producer in Canada, producing 60 per cent of the country’s natural gas in 2024 and 3.6 million barrels of raw crude bitumen production per day. Industry analysts have just noted that Alberta has nearly six times the natural gas it thought, which places Canada among the world’s top 10 gas reserves.
The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) reported that on the $110 billion spent on operating and capital expenditures of oil and gas companies in Canada in 2023, there were more than $20 billion worth of royalties paid to provincial governments, following a record payout of $33 billion in oil and gas royalties in 2022. The CAPP also reported that oil and gas extraction is the largest goods-producing industry in the country (30 per cent larger than Canada’s residential building construction industry), employing directly or indirectly 900,000 workers across Canada – in jobs that pay 2.2 times higher than the Canadian average.
The health of the Alberta energy sector is significant for all Canadians. Oil and natural gas products is Canada’s number one export. The country is now the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, and Goldman Sachs’ 2024 global energy forecast predicts that “oil usage will increase through 2034” due to “strong demand in emerging markets and growing production of petrochemicals.” The PM’s former global investment bank also reported world demand for natural gas (including LNG) will continue to increase – “since natural gas is the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel.” This is all promising news for Canadians; recent international news suggests Canada is the energy solution for Europe’s unreliable reliance on Russian oil and gas, and for the G-7 nations’ energy security.
Perhaps even more significant than the economic data, the development of Alberta’s natural resources will reflect the functioning well-being of the nation and its regions. After suffering through Canada’s Lost Decade and the frustrations of being ignored by the Trudeau Liberals, troubled Albertans are now looking for a reset of the federal-provincial relationship. This is what has prompted the Alberta Next Panel. It is what has prompted a series of initiatives in which Albertans are looking to assert their best interests within the Canadian confederation.
The Smith government has become strident in exploring the options for removing the province from national institutions and programs that may not be serving Albertans as well as they should. So, now on the table for discussion is the possibility that Alberta will implement its own public pension plan in place of the CPP, collect its own taxes, replace the RCMP with its own provincial police force, and manage its own immigration program. All of these are not novel ideas; Quebec has had this autonomy for some time.
The Smith government is also leading the charge to have the Canadian equalization formula revisited, looking for a “better deal” than the figures this year that will have $26 billion taken from western provinces and half of that total ($13.6 billion) given to Quebec. The premier states, “The current equalization system isn’t fair or sustainable. It’s time for a better deal that doesn’t put all the weight on a few provinces.”
The western alienation has also festered to the point that Alberta separatists are garnering unprecedented support and are organizing for a referendum on the matter as early as next year. One of the most prominent separatist organizations, The Alberta Prosperity Project, issued a report with a draft fiscal blueprint, “The Value of Freedom,” which shows Alberta would be far better off being independent from Canada. In response at a recent media announcement, Smith pointed out that the separatist movement in the province was “no joke” and the desire for Albertans’ self-determination is a direct result of “bad policies in Ottawa.” She said of Carney, “I hope he takes the separatist sentiment as seriously as I do.”
Indeed, Central Canadians – politicians, media, and the general public – must take this sentiment seriously if the country is to move forward united, taking full advantage of its economic potential. Recent opinion polls reveal that the feeling of alienation in Alberta has spread as fast as a prairie wildfire. A Nanos poll indicates that one in four people in the province identify as Albertan first and Canadian second; Mainstreet Research reports more than one in three (36.5 per cent) of Albertans will “somewhat support” or “strongly support” an independent Alberta; and, a recent national Leger survey suggests that more than half (55 per cent) of Canadians fully understand Albertans’ desire for independence.
As a concluding thought on the Ottawa and Alberta series, let’s come back to that unhelpful Globe and Mail
editorial. The regurgitated biases the editors spewed simply reinforces that unflattering picture of our country where the eastern establishment is unappreciatively milking the producing cow in the west. If this is in fact central Canadians’ view of the nation, clearly then, there needs to be a sizable attitudinal adjustment – and in short order. The hope from the premier and Albertans is, that when the dust settles from the Carney-Smith showdown later this fall, Canadians will be rallying around an expanding western energy sector — and the promise that comes with it of a recovering national economy.
Chris George is an advocate, government relations advisor, and writer/copy editor. As president of a public relations firm established in 1994, Chris provides discreet counsel, tactical advice and management skills to CEOs/Presidents, Boards of Directors and senior executive teams in executing public and government relations campaigns and managing issues. Prior to this PR/GR career, Chris spent seven years on Parliament Hill on staffs of Cabinet Ministers and MPs. He has served in senior campaign positions for electoral and advocacy campaigns at every level of government. Today, Chris resides in Almonte, Ontario where he and his wife manage www.cgacommunications.com. Contact Chris at chrisg.george@gmail.com.
