With students back in school for a few weeks now and the leaves turning colour, it means only one thing: fall is upon us. Though kids have been back in the classroom, the big kids in Ottawa officially returned on Monday as Parliament resumed for the start of the fall session.
Prime Minister Mark Carney is walking in with the kind of momentum most prime ministers only get once. He capped a summer that included a foreign investment summit in Toronto, a speech to the European Parliament in Strasbourg and a working stop in the United Kingdom. He told his caucus on Friday that all of it was just the warm-up. This sitting, he said, will feature some of the most consequential legislation in decades.
Which is a big claim, and the government has signalled their plans to back it up. They are tabling the Building Canada Strong Act, a follow-up to the temporary project approval law passed this spring. It would make permanent what was meant to be an emergency power, one review per major project, on a fixed one-year clock. A separate bill will touch the labour code, giving the minister new tools to intervene in disputes judged likely to cause serious economic damage. And Carney has already put privatization of operations at Canada’s four largest airports on the table, promising Ottawa keeps the land while private capital runs the terminals.
For Carney, the real test begins now. He has spent the summer building political capital through headline diplomacy, promises and courtship. Now he must spend the time and energy on legislation that will draw genuine opposition, from environmentalists on the projects bill, from labour on the code changes, and from almost everyone on airports if fares move the wrong way.
The reality is that he has room to do it. The Liberals hold a majority of 173 seats after a string of floor crossings and byelection wins, a reversal from the shaky minority they had barely a year ago. But a majority built that way is thin enough that Carney cannot bank it forever, especially with six more by-elections coming, including in Brantford-Brant South, where former Conservative MP Larry Brock left to return to law.
The Conservatives arrive in worse shape than they left. Pierre Poilievre won 87 per cent support at his party’s leadership review in January, and the trend has run one direction since. Four floor crossings and three byelection losses cost his party the majority window it once had. Former prime minister Stephen Harper showing up at Carney’s investment summit, alongside Jean Chrétien, did not help. Poilievre built his political identity on partisan combat, and there was Harper standing next to two Liberal prime ministers, modelling the unity Poilievre has spent years arguing against.
Poilievre’s deeper problem may be positioning rather than personality. Carney governs closer to the centre than his Liberal predecessors, which leaves less obvious room for a Conservative attack from the right and opens space on the left for the NDP and Bloc Québécois to work the very bills the government is about to introduce. Affordability is still Poilievre’s strongest card, and he will swing it hard on the airport file, where “sweetheart deals for corporate insiders” is an easy line to write. Whether it reverses his slide is a separate question entirely.
Two provincial votes will complicate the fall further. Alberta’s referendum on whether to hold a future separation vote lands with polling showing most Albertans want to stay, but a strong showing from the other side could harden into a more organized movement. Quebec’s election, two weeks earlier, could hand the Parti Québécois a majority. Neither guarantees a crisis for Ottawa, but both are exactly the kind of distraction a government trying to pass contentious legislation does not need.
Carney’s job this fall is proving his agenda works before the trade war with the United States does more damage to the economy. Poilievre’s job is simpler to state and harder to do, giving Conservatives a reason to still believe he’s the answer. Parliament is back. The easy part of the summer is over for both of them.
Daniel Perry is the Director of Federal Affairs at the Council of Canadian Innovators, leading national advocacy and engagement efforts. With experience in consulting and roles at the Senate of Canada, Queen’s Park, and the Canadian Criminal Justice Association, Daniel has helped political leaders and clients across various sectors achieve their public policy goals. A frequent media contributor and seasoned campaigner, Daniel holds a Master of Political Management from Carleton University.
