Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre faces a year of major tests in 2026.
Last year was certainly a year of lows for the aspiring prime minister – losing an election that appeared almost impossible to lose months prior; losing his own riding after representing Carleton for 20 years; and two floor crossings and another resignation putting his archrival on the doorstep of a majority government.
What lays in store for 2026?
First, Poilievre faces a leadership review at the Conservative Party Convention in Calgary at the end of the month. While nearly every observer expects Poilievre to win the endorsement of party faithful, the question everyone will be asking is how much of a win he can notch. Leaders in the past have stepped down after winning less than 75 per cent of the vote, and one can only imagine Poilievre will face questions from the liberal media should he fail to pass the 80 per cent threshold with great enthusiasm.
While Poilievre still has much of the party behind him, he does have some doubters. Losing two Conservative MPs to the Liberals through floor crossings late last year was certainly a gut punch and raises questions amongst Poilievre’s doubters about his electability and capacity to keep the party united as Prime Minister Mark Carney repeatedly poaches Tory policies. And while the party did gain seats and win 41 per cent of the popular vote in last year’s election, Conservatives across the country had been steeling themselves for a majority win for months, if not years. The naysayers will say that another leader could have managed to best Carney. This author isn’t so sure.
Even if Poilievre does win a strong endorsement from Conservative Party faithful in Calgary, he still will face challenges back in Ottawa. With MPs Chris d’Entremont and Michael Ma having departed for the Liberal caucus, the question on everyone’s mind is whether more are waiting in the wings. Will Carney time another floor crossing to coincide with the Calgary convention? Can the Liberals get to a majority without even having to call an election? Only time will tell.
Let’s say the floor crossing saga is over, and there’s no guarantee that it is, there’s the possibility of another election in 2026. Carney wants a majority – that much is clear. He doesn’t want to have to be accountable to another party in Parliament. But even if one or two more Tories do cross the floor, Carney will have the thinnest majority in Canada in decades, one that will be tough to manage. He may simply decide to go to the polls regardless and set himself up as the man best positioned to renegotiate the Canada-United States-Mexico Free Trade Agreement, which is up for renegotiation next year.
Still, Poilievre should maintain some optimism. Poll after poll in December showed the Liberals falling, although none have yet shown the Tories with a lead of their own. Perhaps Carney’s shine is starting the wear off among a certain segment of the electorate. Some may be coming to realize that, although the leader has changed, this is still the same tired and stale Liberal government that has been running the country for the past decade. The question many Canadians might find themselves asking is this – is Poilievre the antidote to a tired governing party in the Liberals?
Poilievre has faced likeability problems in the past. It’s clear that in hiring new campaign manager Steve Outhouse, someone respected across the Conservative movement, he’s trying to change that. Will these efforts bear any fruit and start to reverse some of the worrying trends in Poilievre’s favourability numbers? Only time will tell. But Poilievre can take some solace in the fact that Carney’s own numbers, which were sky-high for months, have finally come back to earth.
While no one is fully certain what lies in store for 2026, one thing is clear: it will be a decisive year in Poilievre’s leadership. He faces tests – at the convention, in Parliament, and possibly at the ballot box. The year 2026 could end with Poilievre as prime minister or even as a former party leader. Poilievre’s future will soon become clear, as will Canada’s path in the years ahead.
Jay Goldberg is the Canadian Affairs Manager at the Consumer Choice Center. He previously served as the Ontario Director at the Canadian Taxpayers Federation and a policy fellow at the Munk School of Public Policy and Global Affairs. Jay holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Toronto.
