Despite the fact that Ontario remains more than three years out from the next provincial election, changing polling numbers might be hard for Premier Doug Ford to ignore.
A new poll from Liason Strategies finds Ontario’s governing PCs trailing the leaderless Liberals, with the NDP also surging. According to Liason, the Liberals lead the pack with 38 per cent public support, followed by the PCs at 33 per cent and the NDP at 24 per cent.
This is a remarkable reversal of fortunes for the governing Progressive Conservatives, with the party having won a strong majority victory just a year and a half ago.
But while the governing party’s overall numbers may be a cause for concern, Ford’s personal numbers should be a cause for alarm. The poll shows that 72 per cent of Ontarians disapprove of his performance as premier, with just 24 per cent saying they approve. This is Ford’s lowest approval number to date.
With Ford’s personal numbers sliding and scandals building up, and with the latest hotel scandal clearly taking a hit on the government’s popularity, look for the premier to shake things up before the fall.
A number of Cabinet ministers have departed. Stan Cho, the former tourism, culture and gaming minister, resigned after charging $16,000 in Toronto hotel rooms to taxpayers despite himself living in Toronto. Cho has since paid the money back but was forced to resign from Cabinet as a result.
Caroline Mulroney also recently exited the government and resigned her seat and Neil Lumsden is set to do the same in a matter of days.
That opens up three Cabinet roles for Ford to fill. Given how unpopular his government has become and the challenge of trailing the leaderless Liberals, look for Ford to engage in a larger Cabinet shuffle and bring some new faces to the fore.
Mainstays like Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy and Deputy Premier and Health Minister Sylvia Jones should be expected to stay where they are, but others could be in line for a promotion, including Niagara’s own Sam Oosterhoff, who has been capably serving as an associate minister for the past few years.
After eight years in power, any government can start to look tired. But given what the Ford government has gone through in recent months, it’s clear the governing PCs will be facing headwinds.
Will Ford himself head for the exits? That’s a question some are asking although, given his role in the ongoing trade conflict with the United States, an imminent departure is unlikely. However, if Ford’s poll numbers continue to slide, there may be some calls for change.
What will truly reset the chess board will be the selection of a new Liberal leader. The Liberals might be polling well without a leader, but every leader comes with baggage, and no doubt the Tories will have attack ads ready when the Liberals choose their new leader in November. Frontrunner Navdeep Bains, who was a key Cabinet minister in the Trudeau government, could face criticism for his association with the former prime minister. Other candidates include MPP Lee Fairclough, fintech consultant Eric Lombardi, and former staffer Dylan Marando.
All in all, look for Ford to prepare to reset the governing PCs later this summer or early this fall and position the party to take on the next Liberal leader, whoever that may be. Ford will want to refresh the government benches, but he will also want to take on the new Liberal leader, head-on, especially in the face of his own weakening numbers.
Jay Goldberg is the Canadian Affairs Manager at the Consumer Choice Center. He previously served as the Ontario Director at the Canadian Taxpayers Federation and a policy fellow at the Munk School of Public Policy and Global Affairs. Jay holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Toronto.
