BC election could be a photo finish

BC voters will head to the polls on Saturday, October 24th, to decide who may lead the province into the 2030s. Premier David Eby called a snap election while his rivals, the BC Conservative Party, shed members and lost their leader. Many have seen Eby’s efforts as cynical, arguing that he and the NDP needed a new mandate to address the threat posed by Donald Trump. Having chronicled this story in a previous article for the Independent (Could Premier David Eby’s Snap Election Call Backfire?), this author remains perplexed and amused by Eby’s decision to call the vote, given that he had two years left on his mandate. Voters viewed his self-serving move, and the polls turned badly against him, especially as they became familiar with Lorne Doerkson, the interim Conservative leader who suddenly emerged as a viable alternative to Eby and his NDP government.

Midway through the campaign, Eby’s chances were flagging badly, and his party not only looked headed for the opposition benches but also appeared to be in for a thumping. Over the past week, two Conservative nominees had to be removed from their campaigns for embarrassing reasons. Jordan McIntosh of Jordan-Strathcona was removed for posting screenshots on an anonymous account called “Death Night.” The posts minimized the Holocaust and defended Adolf Hitler. The NDP brought these posts to light, and Doerkson took action to remove McIntosh from the Conservative line on the ballot. The week before, Joachim Agou of Victoria-Beacon Hill posted a video of Palestinian protesters being run over by a car. Agou suggested the driver should have put the vehicle in reverse and run them over again. He also faced backlash for posting a derogatory meme about the Pakistani community. Doerkson and the party took swift action to remove the candidates from representing the party, but the polls have tightened, and the race appears headed for a photo finish.

LATEST POLLS

Polls from five credible pollsters indicate a close race as the campaign nears its conclusion. 338Canada, a week out, favours the Conservatives winning a majority with a 73% probability, listing an NDP majority at only 21%. They predict 52 seats for the Conservatives and 39 for the NDP, with the Greens winning 2. But the trajectory shows NDP chances increasing while the Conservatives decline. The Leger Poll has the Conservatives up by 2 percentage points but also reveals a 26% fluidity rate, meaning a quarter of voters could still change their minds. On the same day, Ipsos had the Conservatives up by 5 points, while the day before Pollara and Research Co. had the Conservatives ahead by 4 points and 2 points, respectively. Most of the polls are within the margin of error, so no one can be certain who will win once the ballots are counted. Like a boxing match, the fighters are up one moment and down the next, on the offensive, then on defence, looking for openings while trying to avoid a knockout punch.

THE DEBATE

The only leaders’ debate took place on October 14th, and most reporters suggested no clear winner emerged; no one lost. Shachi Kurl, President of the Angus Reid Institute, moderated the debate, which featured the three provincial leaders (Premier Eby, Doerkson, and Emily Lowan of the Green Party) debating affordability, healthcare, public safety, and Indigenous rights. Eby had to defend his record and his decision to call the election. The experience left him on the defensive and forced him to admit to “imperfections.” For his part, Eby claimed the Conservatives had not laid out a costed platform and that their propensity to cut taxes would lead to major cuts in public services. Doerkson pushed for change, calling BC an “economic basket case” because of the NDP. He promised to reduce red tape to speed up housing construction, raise the basic personal income tax exemption to $32,000, and stimulate the economy. He also took a firm stand against the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act (DRIPA), contending it was divisive and should be repealed. According to the aspiring premier, partnerships with Indigenous groups would serve everyone better. Meanwhile, Lowan, only 26 years old, introduced herself to the BC public while also advocating for the Greens to be the kingmakers and the peacemakers between the two competing parties. One way she hoped to accomplish this was by proposing electoral reform, pitching proportional representation as a way of ensuring that all the votes in British Columbia would have equal worth. The clips of the debate showed that Doerkson likely assured BCers that he was an acceptable risk, remaining calm, avoiding gaffes, and appearing quite relaxed and capable of debating issues. Eby displayed a humility not often seen, admitting mistakes and promising to do better. Whether that will give voters a reason to give him another chance remains uncertain. Lowan, obviously much younger and very photogenic, scrambled at times to remain relevant. She pressed her message when possible and tried to play off the two older parties as needing help to govern. She may have won the social media war, as many of her quotes made it onto various platforms.

Shannon Waters (The Narwhal) and Rob Shaw (CHEK News), political reporters in BC, appeared on CBCNN Live the next day to analyse the event. Shaw concluded there were no fireworks and no clear winner. Waters observed that there was too much bickering between Eby and Doerkson over too many issues, leaving matters unresolved despite the high stakes. Both journalists questioned whether the debate would even move the needle for voters. Waters summarized the night as not being “especially impactful”, noting that every political party predictably claimed victory for their own leader immediately afterward. Shaw noted that the “hot” issues like indigenous reconciliation and DRIPA are probably not as crucial to most voters as affordability and cost-of-living concerns. Any leader who can make inroads on those voter priorities may have a leg up on winning over the large block of undecideds.

WHAT TO EXPECT

While not original, those following the results in BC should probably expect the unexpected. An Eby come-from-behind victory cannot be dismissed. A rise from obscurity to the premier’s office for Lorne Doerkson seems more feasible than ever. Could Lowan end up holding the balance of power? Very possible, indeed. By Sunday morning, BC could have a new premier, retain its present leader, or be waiting for the two competing parties to negotiate a deal with the Green leader for her support. This race will come down to these last few days, with whoever can squeeze in the last best line, the last best effort to get their voters to the polls, or the last best strategy to convince enough voters to take a chance on them. In horse racing parlance, it looks like a photo finish.