National

Carney’s electricity bet could shape Canada’s next economy

Last week, Prime Minister Mark Carney released Canada’s new National Electricity Strategy. His plans come at a moment when the country is being forced to think more seriously about power. Not just how much electricity we produce, but whether we can build enough of it, move it across the country, and do it quickly enough to support the industries that will define Canada’s next stage of growth.

The federal government’s plan, Powering Canada Strong, aims to double Canada’s electricity grid capacity by 2050 through investments in generation, transmission, distribution, storage and grid modernization. Ottawa says the strategy could lower total energy costs for seven in 10 households and deliver up to $15 billion in total energy savings by 2050. 

Canada has never really had a problem identifying its challenges. Governments have known for years that the country needs faster project approvals, stronger interprovincial infrastructure, more skilled trades workers, and a better way to turn natural advantages into sustained economic growth. The harder part has always been execution.

That is the real test for this strategy. It is one thing to say Canada must double the grid by 2050. It is another thing to get new generation built, transmission lines approved, skilled workers trained, provinces aligned, Indigenous partners at the table, and private capital moving at the speed required.

The pressure on the system is already building. The strategy points to electric vehicles, housing growth, critical minerals, battery manufacturing, advanced manufacturing and artificial intelligence as major drivers of future electricity demand. Ontario alone is expected to see electricity demand grow by about 75 percent by 2050, a reminder that this is not some distant theoretical policy issue. 

Artificial intelligence may be the most immediate example of why electricity policy is now economic policy. Data centres, compute infrastructure, and AI systems require enormous amounts of reliable power, and the federal strategy directly identifies AI data centres as part of the “digital backbone” of the modern economy. 

That gives Canada a real opening. The country has a relatively clean electricity grid, cooler weather that can help with data centre operations, and a growing base of companies working in AI, cybersecurity, cloud infrastructure and digital services. But those advantages only matter if Canada can match them with enough power and a clear strategy for capturing the value of the AI economy.

This is where the electricity strategy feels like a good first step, but not the full answer. Canada still needs a refreshed AI strategy that connects compute, data centres, commercialization, procurement and domestic adoption. Building the power supply for AI is important, but Canada should not settle for being a low-cost plug-in for someone else’s digital economy.

The same point applies beyond AI. The global push toward electric vehicles, battery supply chains, critical mineral mining and cleaner industrial production plays to many of Canada’s natural strengths. We have the minerals, the energy resources, the engineering talent, and in some regions, the clean power needed to compete.

The strategy’s focus on connecting fragmented provincial grids is especially important. Canada’s electricity system has long been shaped by provincial boundaries, with many grids trading more easily with the United States than with each other. 

Greater grid connectivity will not be easy. Transmission projects are expensive, politically difficult and often slow to approve. But if Canada is serious about building a more productive and resilient economy, moving power more efficiently across regions has to be part of the answer.

The opportunity in front of Canada is significant. Electricity can support AI infrastructure, EV manufacturing, critical minerals, northern development, energy exports and broader industrial growth. But the strategy will only matter if it leads to projects being built, businesses being supported, and investment being unlocked.

Canada is good at producing strategies. The next few years will show whether it can produce enough power to match its ambitions.

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